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Much of Europe has been talking about Russia as an “existential” threat. Expect the debate to now turn towards how to address this.
In somewhat Churchillian tones, French President Emmanuel Macron has started channelling aloud what many EU leaders, policymakers and military officials have been thinking since earlier this year: That to keep the peace, Europe needs to be ready for war.
“If we leave Ukraine alone, if we let Ukraine lose this war, then for sure Russia will threaten Moldova, Romania and Poland,” Macron repeated on Thursday (14 March).
Macron’s ‘conversion’ from dove to hawk on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been welcomed by Eastern Europeans, who have asked for this change for a long time. They are increasingly concerned by what a Russian advance this spring could bring.
Russia has now pushed its aggression to a whole new level and the Kremlin, he said, has in recent months “got noticeably harder-line”, placing the Russian economy on a permanent war footing; stepping up repression of internal opposition and escalating cyber-attacks on European countries.
Added to this is the already foregone conclusion of this weekend’s polls that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin will be in charge until at least 2030.
With the option of sending Western troops to Ukraine not being ruled out, and deliberately not drawing red lines, France is keeping strategic ambiguity towards Russia.
How much of Macron’s new-found alarmism and positioning is purely politics and how much is actual commitment, the next weeks and months will tell. The problem is that there are too many people reacting badly to him and his ad-hoc proposals.
The comments were followed by a three-way emergency meeting with Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz, to patch up increasingly broken relations, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, putting on the mandatory common front with Europe’s East.
After the meeting, the three countries of the so-called ‘Weimar Triangle’ were “united” in their aim, to “never let Russia win and to support the Ukrainian people until the end.”
How and until when remains an open question.
EU leaders in a few days will meet in Brussels to discuss further long-term military aid to Ukraine, the main questions on the table will be: Are we winning this war? and, Are we delivering enough support for Ukraine?’
Two years after Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022, Ukraine’s frontline has frozen, a tactical stalemate, with neither side having enough soldiers, weapons and especially ammunition to gain the upper hand.
European governments have previously said ‘no’ to lethal aid, tanks, missiles and fighter jets. But all of those have now been delivered (or are in the process of being).
“Given the urgency of the situation, the European Union is determined to continue providing Ukraine and its people all the necessary political, financial, economic, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support, for as long as it takes and as intensely as needed,” according to an early draft of their summit conclusions, seen by Euractiv.
“Russia must not prevail,” the draft text adds, spelling out efforts ranging from ammunition to using proceeds from immobilised Russian assets. They will also call for more sanctions against Russia’s supplier friends.
But the more interesting part, however, will be what comes out of the EU leader’s discussion that will not be on paper.
If the declared strategic goal is that ‘Russia must not win’, then to achieve that, options to react must be wider and nothing ‘taken off the table’, an increasing bunch of EU diplomats believe.
EU IN THE WORLD
FAC PREVIEW | EU foreign ministers meeting in Brussels on Monday (18 March) will have two major topics on the agenda Russia’s war on Ukraine and the situation in the Middle East, in preparation for the EU summit later in the week. They expect US Secretary of State Blinken via VTC as a special guest and regular video call with Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Kuleba.
On Ukraine, they’re expected to sign off the fresh deal on the Ukraine Assistance Fund, which boosts the bloc’s off-budget European Peace Facility (EPF) with an extra €5 billion and is seen as a big win for Kyiv amid US aid uncertainty and equipment shortage.
On the Middle East, expect the debate to focus on the humanitarian situation, but no decisions are foreseen to be taken.
AID RACE | Airdrops and a maritime corridor will not be enough to substitute humanitarian aid transported by trucks into Gaza, where people are on the verge of famine, European Commissioner for Crisis Management Janez Lenarčič told us earlier this week, ahead of a humanitarian aid forum in Brussels on Monday that is likely to heavily focus on Gaza.
DEFENCE BRIEFING
€100 BILLION | Borrowing from the financial markets or taking from national budgets are the best ways to give Ukraine what it needs to win the war, according to Estonia, which is looking for more than €100 billion to achieve that goal.
PREPAREDNESS UNION | Finland wants the EU and member states to increase crisis management capacities to avoid getting blind-sided by future upheavals, emergency talks and potential cracks in the bloc’s unity, according to a non-paper seen by Euractiv.
DEFENCE DEALS | The European Commission this week announced a series of deals and subsidised projects for the defence industry, in a bid to boost ammunition production and joint procurement to speed up deliveries to Ukraine.
DEFENCE MOVES | While Denmark intends to pass a bill to extend and equalise conscription to have more women conscripted in the military, Germany mulls a return to conscription starting in 2025.
CHARM OFFENSIVE | Support in the US for NATO is high and Europe’s investment in defence is higher than ever, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said, in a move to dismiss any future criticism from Washington.
WIDER EUROPE
BOSNIA DECISION | The European Commission recommended that Bosnia and Herzegovina start accession talks as a part of its path to EU membership, a matter that now is expected to be taken up by EU leaders at their summit in Brussels.
EU BID | Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called for broad public dialogue on the prospect of applying for EU membership, as the ex-Soviet country’s ties with Russia fray.
WHAT ELSE WE’RE READING
ON OUR RADAR NEXT WEEK
- European Commission President Von der Leyen, PM’s De Croo, Meloni visit Egypt
| Sunday, 17 March 2024 | Cairo, Egypt - Final day of the Russian presidential election
| Sunday, 17 March 2024 | - EU foreign ministers meet on Ukraine, Gaza, current issues
| Monday, 18 March 2024 | Brussels, Belgium - European Humanitarian Forum
| Mo-Tue, 18-19 March 2024 | Brussels, Belgium - EU-Ukraine Association Council
| Tuesday, 19 March 2024 | Brussels, Belgium - EU affairs ministers meet on summit preparation, enlargement
| Tuesday, 19 March 2024 | Brussels, Belgium - European Commission to present pre-enlargement policy reviews
| Wednesday, 20 March 2024 | Brussels, Belgium - EU summit with focus on Ukraine military aid, Gaza and agriculture
| Thu-Fri, 21-22 March 2024 | Brussels, Belgium - Visegrad Group foreign ministers meet
| Thursday, 21 March 2024 | Prague, Czech Republic
PREVIOUS EDITIONS
[Edited by Rajnish Singh]
Read more with Euractiv
