Poland’s ruling pro-European coalition parties are hoping Sunday’s (7 September) local election will put an end to an “age of populism” represented by the previous nationalist government.
The vote is seen as a first test for the ruling centre-left coalition of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, which emerged from the October general election.
Voters in the EU and NATO member of 38 million people will choose mayors and local and regional government members from among almost 200,000 candidates.
On the national scale, the vote “will be tantamount to a referendum on the political parties”, Stanislaw Mocek, a professor at the Collegium Civitas university in Warsaw, told AFP.
Opinion polls show Tusk’s centrist Civic Coalition (KO) neck and neck with the nationalist Law and Justice party (PiS) which ruled the country until last year, with both scoring just under 30% backing.
The election could serve as a litmus test for the two parties on a national scale, but the vote will be crucial for the country’s 16 regional councils.
Members of the ruling coalition, running separately, are hoping to win in all but one of them.
‘Undemocratic tendencies’
The KO will be counting on its allies, the Christian-Democratic party Third Way and the Left party, to help the pro-European camp prevail.
The PiS, which currently rules in five regions, may team up with the far-right Confederation or minor regional groupings after the vote.
Anna Materska-Sosnowska, an analyst at the Stefan Batory Foundation, said that if the pro-EU alliance wins, it will “confirm a rejection of undemocratic tendencies” among the country’s voters.
Tusk, who served as the European Council head in 2014-2019, highlighted this during the campaign, saying the country was “rebuilding the rule of law these days” after the PiS rule.
His ally Rafal Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw who is seeking to extend his term in the vote, said Friday that “a second stage is needed in this march to end the age of populism represented by the PiS”.
The pro-Western parties need a big win also because the Tusk government is facing criticism from some voters for a slow pace of reforms after the first 100 days in office.
For the PiS, which is still the largest party in parliament, the election is “a chance to see what degree of support they can count on”, said Materska-Sosnowska.
On the national level, the PiS is hoping to remain the country’s biggest party, fuelling its hopes of returning to power some day.
Its loss to KO could in turn result in a collapse of the party led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski in the longer term, analysts said.
‘A tough race ahead’
Former PiS Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has recently warned that his party should “get ready for a tough race ahead”.
The PiS can count on its faithful voters in smaller towns and the countryside, especially in Poland’s rural east and southeast.
The ruling coalition is all but certain to prevail in large cities.
In Warsaw, Trzaskowski is tipped to win the mayor’s seat in the first round.
A second-round decider two weeks later would be perceived as a major surprise.
The election campaign was focused largely on local issues, such as transport, housing and the reinforcement of local and regional governments after years of centralisation pushed by the PiS.
The campaign was marked by farmers’ rallies in protest against the EU’s Green Deal and cheap grain imports from Ukraine.
Protesters were also angry about financial scandals linked to the previous government and a rift in the ruling coalition over bids to liberalise the abortion law in the strongly Catholic country.
Turnout is expected to trail the record-high 74.4% from last year’s general election, which propelled the Tusk-led coalition to power.
Polling stations will open at 0500 GMT and close at 1900 GMT on Sunday, with exit polls to be published shortly afterwards.
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