Will Indonesia Ally with U.S or Chinese Forces?

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Indonesia has grown larger and more powerful since the end of the cold war, quietly becoming the biggest Economy in Southeast Asia and the fourth most populous country in the world. They have a massive military of 400,000 personnel as of 2023, the same year that they approved a 20% increase to their defense spending. Physically connecting the Indian and Pacific Ocean is the nation of Indonesia where 60% of the worlds maritime trade passes through this region. Indonesia is a major part of the 10 member Association of SouthEast Asian Nations or (AH-see-ahn) ASEAN. When combined as a whole, they rank as the fifth-largest economy with a combined population of 662 million people and a GDP of 10 trillion or 6.5% of the global GDP. They’re kind of a big deal. For context NATO has about 900 million people under their security umbrella.

So now it’s becoming more clear why both the United States and China are investing Billions of dollars competing for Indonesia’s affection trying to win them over as an ally and a bestie. But We’ll see how Indonesia’s foreign policy of aggressive neutrality might be one of the biggest factors preventing war between the US and China right now. The non aligned policy of a country halfway around the world from you might prevent armageddon. How does Indonesia’s unique history explain this stance? What are the reasons Indonesia is suspicious of any potential U.S or Chinese alliance? And why are they paradoxically speeding up their military’s modernization efforts?

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