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As Ukrainian forces struggle to fend off Russia’s invasion, with dwindling supplies of rockets and other ammunition, the EU is looking to unblock financial and military aid thwarted by the bloc’s internal divisions.

Just under a month before the second anniversary of the start of Russia’s war on Ukraine, Kyiv’s prospects for a fast recapture of its territory in a major counteroffensive are rather bleak.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had already said in December that a ‘new phase’ of the war had begun and ordered his troops to reinforce defensive positions on the approximately 1,000-kilometer-long front.

Instead of advancing, Ukraine’s military is increasingly being pushed onto the defensive across parts of the front line.

According to military experts, Ukrainians will likely adopt a strategy of ‘active defence’, trying to hold the current positions and look for weak spots in Russian defences and hit them with long-range missile strikes.

But while this could create the opportunity and time to train troops for another counter-offensive, possibly in 2025, a defensive fight now would also require a different type of weapons than so far provided.

Ukraine’s 2024 budget allocates nearly $40 billion, roughly half of the total expenditure, to defence, which will be almost entirely covered by taxation.

Such a strategy can only succeed if Western support does not wane.

“Given the dependence of Ukraine on external support, the choices made by the EU member states and partners in the coming period will either allow Ukraine to decisively progress or will seriously undermine its ability to resist,” warned an internal EU memo, seen by Euractiv earlier this week.

“Uncertainty around the predictable and structured provision of military assistance to Ukraine will have a consequential impact on Ukraine,” it added.

In other words, either Ukraine will have enough fighting power to fight back against Russia, or it will start to lose because it lacks the necessary weapons.

Eyes have been on the US for weeks, where a Republican takeover of the White House in November could spell a funding catastrophe for Kyiv.

As incumbent US President Joe Biden continues to urge top lawmakers to approve his $60 billion aid request for Ukraine, a grim realisation has settled in that this is this administration’s probably last chance to send any new US military funding to the war-torn country before the 2024 presidential election.

In a partisan battle in US Congress, Republicans have linked aid to Ukraine to demands for a package of tough new restrictions on migrants and asylum-seekers at America’s southern border.

Earlier this month, Biden cautioned that unrest could spread in Europe if Congress fails to pass additional Ukraine aid.

“If we walk away, and Russia is able to sustain their onslaught and bring down Ukraine, what do you think’s going to happen in the Balkan countries?” Biden said, adding: “It changes the dynamic.”

In the absence of fresh US assistance, Ukrainian and Western officials are warning with an increasing sense of urgency that Russia has a growing upper hand in manpower, ammunition and other war equipment.

In particular, Kyiv would urgently need ammunition, a crucial element in the war of attrition between Ukrainian troops and Russia’s invasion forces, with each side firing thousands of shells every day.

As it becomes increasingly clear the EU might likely miss its target of getting one million shells and missiles to Ukraine within a year (by March).

As Euractiv reported earlier this week, the EU has also recently started looking into how to unblock the talks about the top-up of the European Peace Facility (EPF), the off-budget funding mechanism used to reimburse member states for their weapons donations to Ukraine.

The new push comes after EU leaders in December postponed the agreement on a dedicated Ukraine Facility under the instrument, which would see the absorption of some of the EPF’s remaining funds and be topped up by €5 billion a year from 2024 and 2027.

In addition, Hungary has blocked any disbursement from the existent funds for member states for more than six months, demanding unrelated concessions from Kyiv.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has urged other EU countries to do more to help Kyiv militarily, calling for an audit of EU military assistance provided so far.

The screening, currently conducted by the EU’s diplomatic service (EEAS), is expected to guide the larger discussion about the future of Ukraine’s military aid when EU leaders meet in Brussels for an emergency summit next Thursday.

They will also face a tough discussion over a €50 billion financial aid package for Ukraine, a vital cash lifeline to keep the state apparatus running – from government services to social security to the health care system.

EU IN THE WORLD

MIDDLE EAST HEADACHE | Israel’s Foreign Minister Israel Katz earlier this week sidestepped a discussion on the situation in Gaza and a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at talks with EU counterparts.

But even for the staunchest Israel supporters among EU member states it is becoming increasingly difficult not to adopt a more critical stance towards Tel Aviv, several EU diplomats told Euractiv this week.

The International Court of Justice (ICJ), meanwhile, ruled Israel must take steps to prevent acts of genocide in Gaza, but stopped short of ordering a ceasefire as requested by South Africa.

FOREIGN INTERFERENCE| A new report by the EU’s diplomatic service (EEAS) examined more than 750 disinformation attacks over the last year and issued a stark warning about misleading information spread from abroad.

“2024 is a critical year to fight” foreign information manipulation and interference, Borrell said, warning that “elections will become the prime target for malign foreign actors” such as Russia, EU chief diplomat Josep Borrell warned.

QMV CLASH | Internal discussions in the EU’s centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) – the largest political family in Europe – saw an “unsettling” exchange about the drafting process of its EU election manifesto, including over the push for qualified majority voting on foreign policy.

DEFENCE BRIEFING

NATO PATH | Turkey’s parliament this week finally approved Sweden’s accession bid to become the 32nd member of  NATO, leaving Hungary as the final hurdle to overcome on the Nordic country’s way to full membership. But Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is in no rush.

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson could meet his Hungarian counterpart in Brussels on 1 February on the margins of the EU leaders’ summit to push the matter forward.

French President Emmanuel Macron, meanwhile, will make its way to Sweden mid-week to discuss European defence issues.

EIB MOVES ON DEFENCE | The European Investment Bank is open to financing defence industries but is still reluctant to go beyond dual-use technology, a top EIB official told Euractiv’s Aurelie Pugnet in an interview, warning also that the idea of using Eurobonds to finance military industry must be carefully weighed as they may not attract investors.

SPACE GAZE | With an EU space rulebook in the works, Europeans start looking at the space programme’s next generation, including a launcher demand aggregator, and threat mapping strategy.

WIDER EUROPE

LOOKING EAST | As part of a new project, our new series aims to address foreign interference in European media via meticulous, fact-checked editorial production by freelance journalists from the EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood. You can follow the coverage here.

Read more with Euractiv