Walking on eggshells, playing for time. That’s how political scholar Elaine Kamarck sums up the mindset of Republican senators, sitting in judgement of former US president Donald Trump at his coming impeachment trial.
The former president is the first to be impeached twice by the US House of Representatives and now faces a second trial in the Senate, accused of inciting an insurrection at the US Capitol on January 6.
The Senate needs a two-thirds majority to convict Mr Trump, which would require 17 Republicans to break ranks and join with all 50 Democrats to vote for a conviction.
But rather than a rebellion, Ms Kamarck, who is the director of the Center for Effective Public Management, expects senators to look for any reason to acquit as an escape hatch.
“This is a political calculation on a day-to-day basis,” she said.
“They will likely choose the path of least resistance. The only surprise will be how many Republicans actually vote for a conviction.”
Ms Kamarck says many Republicans, especially those senators facing re-election next year, fear a backlash from the Trump-supporting right wing of their party.
Out of office and silenced on social media, the former president has shown he still wields control over the futures of Republicans in Congress.
Read our full coverage of the US election and its aftermath.
His influence has already been felt by the 10 House Republicans who voted with Democrats in January to impeach Mr Trump.
Many have faced retaliation.
Republicans who spoke out face backlash
Republican House member Adam Kinzinger is one of those who voted to impeach, and says many supporters have abandoned him.
“It’s really difficult,” the Illinois congressman told NBC’s Meet the Press.
“Stop the Steal” campaign was in full swing as he levelled evidence-free claims the election had been stolen from him and that Republicans were complicit in the election fraud.
Republican leaders were silent for fear of provoking the then-president as they headed into two key Senate races in Georgia, which would decide the balance of power in the Senate.
It was a stark lesson, with Republicans losing both races and the Senate.
The very next day was January 6 and the storming of the Capitol in Washington.
The impeachment charge stemming from the Capitol riot is an extraordinary allegation: That a sitting US president fomented a violent uprising against his own government.
Scenes of the violence last month are still fresh in American minds, and Democrats will use videos and witnesses to fully replay those events at the trial.
The Democrats’ impeachment managers had requested that Mr Trump testify in person — a move blocked by his lawyers.
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But even before the trial opens, Republicans are urging the public to move on, calling the case against the former president “vindictive”.
If the Senate does not vote to convict, it will deliver a victory to Mr Trump.
It would also be a boost to his most fervent supporters and dispel the notion that the 45th president’s departure from the White House would break his grip on his party.
Source: news.google.com