MELBOURNE’s property market has seen growth beyond all expectations in the past 20 years.
And it’s left families forking out six times what they did in 1996 for a house and coping with mortgage payments $600 more expensive each month.
Prices in some suburbs have soared up to 11 times their original value — Ashburton topping the list with a median house price of $160,000 in 1996 up to $1.84 million today.
Even the affordable suburb of Braybrook has risen more than ten times its original value, from $70,500 to $751,000.
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CoreLogic Australian head of real estate Geoff White said it would have been impossible to predict the growth we have seen.
“Even if you’d taken a stab in the dark, you wouldn’t have said 900 or 1000 per cent,” Mr White said.
“All of the suburbs have seen growth, and most of them more than 500 per cent.”
Citywide Melbourne’s median house value has grown almost six times from $129,000 in 1996, to $742,000 in latest figures, according to CoreLogic.
Economist Saul Eslake said the past 20 years had gotten progressively tougher for homebuyers.
“The homeownership rate is lower than at any Census since 1947,” Mr Eslake said.
Social changes over the past two decades had potentially encouraged more people to consider smaller residences — townhouses or units — and more families to have two working parents, Mr Eslake said.
But rising prices had forced the issue in many instances.
“The impact of lower interest rates on people’s capacity to service a mortgage has been in most cases more than offset by slower growth in wages and the growth in property prices,” Mr Eslake said.
Homebuyers today, particularly younger ones, were probably worse off than those in 1996, Mr White said.
“If you looked at the incomes of people now they’d be quite a bit more, so you’d say people are better off,” he said.
“But buying into the market now, particularly if you are starting out, is incredibly hard.”
And despite expectations of fairly flat growth conditions for the next five years, a similar growth in the city’s property prices could be on the cards again in the next 20 years.
“In 20 years time we will probably say ‘a $1.8 million median? Wasn’t that cheap!’,” Mr White said.
“The great Australian dream has changed. It’s still buying real estate, it just isn’t the same real estate.”
Peter and Bernice Rodgerson had a different perspective with plans to sell their 16 Waratah St, West Footscray home set to brighten their retirement.
“It means we can sell that house and take a fair chunk of the funds to put into our super — so it’s secured our future,” Mr Rodgerson said.
“It’s the saving grace for our retirement.”
The home is for sale with Biggin & Scott Yarraville’s Tristan Tomasino.
MELBOURNE’S BIGGEST GROWTH ‘BURBS
Suburb — median price today — median price 1996 — % increase
Ashburton — $1,840,000 — $160,000 — 1050%
Braybrook — $751,000 — $70,500 — 965.2%
Box Hill — $1,650,250 — $157,000 — 951.1%
Highett — $1,331,000 — $129,000 — 931.8%
Clayton — $1,100,000 — 110,000 — 900%
Ashwood — $1,345,000 — $136,486 — 885.4%
Burwood — $1,370,667 — $140,000 — 879%
Heidelberg West — $730,000 — $75,000 — 873.3%
West Footscray — $897,500 — $92,500 — 870.3%
Box Hill South — $1,337,500 — $138,050 — 868.9%
*Source: CoreLogic
CHANGES IN HOUSING TYPE
Housing type — 1996 — 2016
Houses — 914,953 — 1,067,637
Townhouses/Semi-detached — 97,988 — 264,409
Units/Apartments — 183,249 — 231,297
*Homes occupied on Census night
*Source: Census, Greater Melbourne
COST OF HOME OWNERSHIP
Average Victorian monthly mortgage payment
1996 — 2016
$1382* — $1902
*Figure corrected for inflation
*Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Standard Variable interest rate
1996 — 2016
9.25 per cent — 5.3 per cent
*Source: Reserve Bank of Australia
MELBOURNE’S URBAN SPRAWL
Population
1996 — 2016
3,138,147 — 4,485,211
Demographic centre of Melbourne
1996
33 Britten St, Glen Iris
2016
1526 Malvern Rd, Glen Iris
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