On Wednesday morning, flash-fame lawyer and potential Democratic 2020 candidate Michael Avenatti finally dropped his much anticipated Brett Kavanaugh bombshell, tweeting out a signed affidavit from Julie Swetnick, a veteran of several government agencies who holds a handful of security clearances. Swetnick, who attended Gaithersburg High School in Gaithersburg, Maryland, swore under oath that she attended at least 10 parties where she says she witnessed Kavanaugh, Mark Judge, and others “cause girls to become inebriated and disoriented so they could then be ‘gang raped’ in a side room or bedroom by a ‘train’ of numerous boys.” She added that she has a “firm recollection of seeing boys lined up outside rooms at many of these parties waiting for their ‘turn’ with a girl inside the room,” including both Judge and Kavanaugh.

Of Kavanaugh, she continued, “I observed [him] drink excessively at many of these parties and engage in abusive and physically aggressive behavior toward girls, including pressing girls against him without their consent, ‘grinding’ against girls, and attempting to remove or shift girls’ clothing to expose private body parts. I likewise observed him to be verbally abusive towards girls by making crude sexual comments to them that were designed to demean, humiliate, and embarrass them.” Swetnick went on to describe her own rape at a party that Kavanaugh had attended. (In a statement, Kavanaugh, called Swetnick’s allegation “ridiculous and from the Twilight Zone.”)

Swetnick’s allegation was a stunning blow to Republican senators, who had all but declared that they would vote for Kavanaugh in spite of burgeoning allegations against him. “We’re going to be moving forward. I’m confident we’re going to win. I’m confident he will be confirmed in the very near future,”Mitch McConnell, promised on the Senate floor just a day before the declaration was made public. In theory, confirming another Supreme Court nominee should’ve been a cake walk—one that would have energized the base, and reaffirmed the support of center-right Republicans who held their noses and voted for Trump with the certainty that he would deliver them control of the highest court in the land. Instead, the specific dynamics of the Kavanaugh confirmation battle are tying the G.O.P. in rhetorical knots as they attempt to shift the blame. “From my view, just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse, it just did,” tweeted Lindsey Graham on Wednesday afternoon. “The lawyer to porn stars has just taken this debacle to an even lower level. I hope people will be highly suspicious of this allegation presented by Michael Avenatti.”

Donald Trump himself chimed in on the subject of Avenatti, tweeting that the “third rate” lawyer “is good at making false accusations,” and is “just looking for attention.” Unfortunately for the G.O.P., however, this line of attack has failed to sway a crucial constituency. According to a Morning Consult poll conducted between September 20 and 23, support for Kavanaugh has dropped 18 points among Republican women—49 percent now support Kavanaugh’s confirmation, while 15 percent oppose it. (Trump’s own approval rating has suffered alongside that of his nominee, dropping 19 points among Republican women since last week.) “Republicans are in a pickle because the base—Christian right and Federalist Society types—are demanding this seat,” Dan Eberhart, a major Republican donor and oil executive, told Bloomberg News. “But the party is losing support with the critical suburban females who want to hear Dr. Ford out.”

Even before sexual assault allegations muddied Kavanaugh’s confirmation process, there were signs that the G.O.P. was underwater with women. In the most recent survey by U.S.C. Dornsife and the Los Angeles Times, Democrats were up 10 points among non-college white women; 9 points among suburban women; and 8 points among married white women, all of which, The Atlantic’s Dick Polman points out, are typically strong constituencies for Republicans. There are signs, too, that party leadership is attempting to thread the needle to retain these voters. ”I don’t know what [Avenatti’s] motivations are. . . . But really what’s important here isn’t the lawyer . . . [it’s] the woman who says she’s been harmed,” Judiciary Committee chairman Chuck Grassley told reporters on Wednesday, not ruling out another hearing in light of Swetnick’s account. Her allegation only adds to the pressure on a handful of undecided senators, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Jeff Flake, and perhaps Bob Corker among them. At this point, however, Republicans have so closely tied Kavanaugh’s nomination to a midterm referendum of their political mandate that it may be too late to back down.