SWEDEN is having a fiery summer. This has been the hottest July on record, and fires have consumed at least 25,000 hectares (62,000 acres) of forest. The political landscape is no less flammable. The Sweden Democrats, an anti-immigrant party founded by neo-Nazis in the 1980s, are in a tie with the governing Social Democrats for first place in some opinion polls, with about 23%. Voters are worried about the country’s ability to assimilate refugees and spooked by a rise in gun violence. With an election due on September 9th, Sweden’s traditionally consensual, left-leaning politics look set for a conflagration.
Indeed, it has been a remarkably good summer for demagogues across much of Europe. In Italy, a coalition between two populist parties, the right-wing Northern League and the maverick Five Star Movement (M5S), took power in June. Since then Matteo Salvini, the League’s leader who is also interior minister, has provoked a string of controversies. He has turned away boats of asylum-seekers, challenged the EU on migration and budget restrictions, and promised to broaden gun owners’ rights to use their weapons in self-defence (see Charlemagne column).
Those tactics have won him media attention. A study of newspaper coverage by Marco Valbruzzi of the University of Bologna found that Mr Salvini was mentioned in nearly half of all political articles in the month to July 11th. Luigi di Maio, the 32-year-old novice who heads the M5S, featured in just a third. It is paying off. At the elections in March the League won 17% of the vote compared with 33% for M5S, but opinion polls now show the two parties roughly equal at around 31%.
In Germany, too, nationalism is on the upswing. The anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) has risen steadily since last autumn’s election. It now sits at around 16%, just two points behind the Social Democrats, and in some polls even scores ahead of them. In the Netherlands, where xenophobic politics have been around for more than a decade, the Party for Freedom of Geert Wilders has a new rival on the Eurosceptic right, the Forum for Democracy, whose youth appeal has increased its support to 8%.
Not all of Europe’s populists are enjoying the summer. In France, the slide in President Emmanuel Macron’s popularity has done little for Marine Le Pen and her National Rally (formerly the National Front). Instead the benefits have mostly gone to the far-left Unsubmissive France party, which is seen by many voters as the real opposition to Mr Macron. The party’s leader, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who calls Mr Macron the “president of the rich”, is seen more favourably than Ms Le Pen.
In Spain, no significant right-wing populist party has emerged. The left-wing populist Podemos movement has been sliding in the polls for two years, and has recently suffered from the revival of the governing Socialists. In Greece, the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party has been holding steady at about 9% support.
Where nationalists are surging, the reasons are hard to pin down. Their parties incite and benefit from panic over immigration and identity politics, but the flow of migrants into Europe across the Mediterranean has slowed to modest numbers. Crime is rising a bit in Sweden, but falling in Germany and the Netherlands. Europe’s economy is growing, inflation is tame and unemployment is relatively low.
Historically, populists have rarely delivered on their promises. But still, the ones in power in Europe retain substantial support. About half the Polish and Hungarian electorates back their illiberal ruling parties. The ANO party of Andrej Babis, the populist billionaire who serves as Czech prime minister, is far ahead of any rival. Even Italy’s coalition of two different flavours of populism seems to be viable. While Mr Salvini rails against migrants, Mr Di Maio’s promise to roll back labour reforms is supported by over 70% of voters. A government many expected to end in a quick divorce is “still enjoying its honeymoon”, marvels Mr Valbruzzi.