Japan needs public officials to get in the game to keep casino legalization moving forward. (Photo credit: Yoshikazu Tsuno/AFP/Getty Images)

Last month’s Japan Gaming Congress in Tokyo was fantastic in every sense of the word. Ticket sales were cut off at 500, and I gave my opening remarks as chairman of the first day to a standing room crowd. I presented on the Japan’s potential impact on the regional gaming market to end the conference a day later to a lot of different faces. Delegates seemed split roughly evenly between gaijin and Japanese, including national and local politicians, representatives of global casino operators, equipment makers, suppliers, bankers, builders, designers and anyone else that might want a role in multibillion dollar hospitality and entertainment developments in the world’s third largest economy. Bringing IRs to Japan is a dream project that inspires fantasies, including some that eventually must yield to realities for casino legalization to realize its enormous promise.

Among foreigners, the main fantasy centers on IR ownership. “Some people, especially some American operators, will likely have their hopes dashed when the reality dawns that this is primarily going to be a Japanese industry,” gaming and regulatory consultant Spectrum Asia CEO Paul Bromberg says. The consensus opinion remains that, whether or not it’s legally required, Japanese companies are going to have leading roles in the groups that build the country’s IR.

“Galaxy had no experience but built a successful resort. Why can’t Japanese companies do that?” Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Managing Director Praveen Choudhary asks. He urges that foreign companies, “Don’t be adamant about wanting control or not wanting a stake of less than 50%.” Riffing on Melco Resorts Chairman Lawrence Ho’s declaration that his company will do “whatever it takes” for a Japan IR, Choudhary notes, “‘Whatever it takes’ may mean, ‘We’ll take a minority stake.’”

Big international operators may likely face the choice of being a small stakeholder or gaming management contractor in a major metropolitan IR or principal investor in a riskier location. How does MGM Izumisano or Wynn Wakayama sound?

On the Japanese side, there are many issues still to be resolved, as the government prepares its IR Implementation Bill to pass later this year, the final legislative step in the legalization process. A ministerial task force with the full support of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is working on that bill and other gaming issues. Despite the high level support and involvement, there are few signs of concrete progress.

“We [Japanese] need to start talking specifics,” PwC Consulting Senior Manager in Tokyo Masahiro Terada, “not satisfied” with the generalities at the conference, said. “Yesterday, it was okay to discuss things generally. From today, we need to discuss IRs more realistically.”

“Government doesn’t know what it wants,” ReNeA Japan Inc CEO Masa Suganuma asserted at the conference. “People in the task force don’t have enough knowledge,” though the seasoned gaming machine executive is confident “they’ll get there.”

More than any other issue, problem gambling stokes widespread public opposition to casino legalization in Japan. Las Vegas Sands Managing Director of Global Development George Tanasijevich focused his conference presentation entirely on problem gambling, saying there would be other times to “make a very strong pitch” for Sheldon Adelson’s global casino leader. Tanasijevich also serves as president and CEO of iconic Marina Bay Sands in Singapore, which legalized IRs in the face of strong local concerns about problem gambling, so he understands the importance of addressing those anxieties.

The issue became even bigger early this month after the deadly attack at Resorts World Manila, apparently by a heavily indebted gambling addict. “The Resorts World Manila disaster will be a massive boon for those opposing the legalization of casino gaming,” Bromberg says. “They will say, ‘See what happens when there are casinos. People get into debt. This man was an addict and hadn’t received any support.’”

Yet with all these reasons to act decisively, in mid-June, legislators failed to agree on a bill to deal with gambling addiction. That the bill apparently derailed on bureaucratic turf issues, not policy differences, doesn’t matter.

The legislative breakdown underscores public officials’ continuing unwillingness to tackle even a slam dunk issue like problem gambling, let alone the larger matter of widespread public opposition to IRs. Proponents appear to believe aversion to casinos will simply evaporate. That’s truly fantastic.