Latvia’s conservative-nationalist party Nacionālā Apvienība (ECR) is leading the polls ahead of the European elections, beating even the ruling coalition Jaunā Vienotība (EPP), but with 16 lists currently vying for at least one of Latvia’s nine seats, the results are too close to predict.

Latvia’s two leading parties, the centre-right Jaunā Vienotība (JV) – an alliance of the Vienotība party and four regional parties – and the opposition Nacionālā Apvienība (NA), have both set themselves the goal of winning more than their current two seats each in the European Parliament.

“It seems that the leading parties will certainly not achieve their ambitions (…) Everything shows that hardly any party will have those three mandates [seats] at all,” Juris Rozenvalds, a political scientist at the University of Latvia, told Euractiv. 

With Latvians set to elect nine MEPs instead of the current eight on 8 June, Rozenvalds notes the competition is stiff – a claim well supported by Europe Elects’ overview of national polls. It notes that eight of the 16 lists stand a chance of entering parliament.

“There is a competition in every segment,” Rozenvalds said, explaining that Latvia’s rather complex political landscape, where the ethnic factor plays a vital role, offers multiple choices. This includes both on the conservative side, such as the NA and Jaunā konservatīvā (JKP) parties, and on the left, where Saskaņa and Stabilitātei! have different views on Putin’s Russia, but both focus on the Russian-speaking electorate, among others. 

According to Europe Elects’ data, the social-democratic party Saskaņa (S&D), which, despite currently having no seats in the national parliament following a significant setback in the 2022 elections, is poised to return to the EU Parliament with one seat instead of its current two. Meanwhile, Latvijas attīstībai (Renew Europ) will likely retain its one seat. 

One seat each is also predicted for the potential newcomers Progresīvie (Greens/EFA), Apvienotais Saraksts (EPP), Stabilitātei!, and Latvija pirmajā vietā. 

Possible dethroning 

Europe Elects currently predict that the coalition-ruling JV will keep its two sets while NA will get one instead of the current two.

However, a May poll by research centre SKDS for the public broadcaster LTV suggests a change of leaders, as NA, a relatively moderate right-wing party in the ECR group, ranks first with 11%, followed by JV, which won the previous EU elections in 2019 with 26.24%, with 8.1%. 

After being in the coalition from 2019-2023, NA also participated in the new one, which quickly fell apart last year and was replaced by Latvia’s most left-leaning coalition ever. 

The series of scandals can explain the JV’s loss of trust, with political experts agreeing that much of the damage has been caused by the party’s “number two” on the EU election list, Krišjānis Kariņš. 

Kariņš, the former prime minister, resigned from his job as foreign minister this spring after it was revealed last autumn that around half a million euros had been spent on private flights during his premiership between 2019 and 2023.    

But even if NA, which wants greater defence cooperation with NATO and the EU and less interference from Brussels on issues such as migration, overtakes the ruling alliance in the polls, Rozenvalds says the two can only hope for two seats each at most. 

War in Ukraine to increase turnout?  

In the EU elections, Latvians tend to vote for recognisable faces with “experience in the European Parliament”, Rozenvalds said, seeing no coincidence in NA’s surge in the polls as its leader is current European Parliament Vice-President Roberts Zīle.  

“I think NA has overtaken JV at this point not because they have a very strict national stance, but because, in the eyes of the public, Mr Zīle is a very experienced and influential politician in the European Parliament,” Rozenvalds added.  

The same applies to JV, whose EU list is fronted by current EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis, even though it is “being dragged down by Kariņš”.

Rozenvalds added that turnout, which was well below the EU average at 33.53% in 2019 and remains much higher for regional and national elections in 2025 and 2026, respectively, could improve as voters are very concerned about the war in Ukraine as Russia’s neighbour.

“From this point of view, realising that in this situation all European issues are also our security issues to a large extent, maybe we will rise above the rather sad 33% in the previous elections,” he said.   

[Edited by Alice Taylor]

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