Turks vote on Sunday (31 March) in nationwide municipal elections focused on President Tayyip Erdoğan’s bid to reclaim control of Istanbul from major rival Ekrem Imamoğlu, who aims to reassert the opposition as a political force after bitter election defeats last year.

Istanbul Mayor Imamoğlu dealt Erdoğan and his AK Party the biggest electoral blow of two decades in power with his win in the 2019 vote. The president struck back in 2023 by securing re-election and a parliament majority with his nationalist allies.

Sunday’s votes could now reinforce Erdoğan’s control of NATO-member Turkey, or signal change in the major emerging economy’s divided political landscape. An Imamoğlu win is seen fuelling expectations of him becoming a future national leader.

Polling stations open at 7 a.m. (0400 GMT) in eastern Turkey, with voting elsewhere starting at 8 a.m. and ending at 5 p.m.. Initial results are expected by 10 p.m. (1900 GMT).

Polls suggest a tight race in Istanbul, a city of 16 million people that drives Turkey’s economy, where Imamoğlu faces a challenge from AKP candidate Murat Kurum, a former minister.

The results are likely to be shaped in part by economic woes driven by rampant inflation near 70%, and by Kurdish and Islamist voters weighing up the government’s performance and their hopes for political change.

While the main prize for Erdoğan is Istanbul, he also seeks to win back the capital Ankara. Both cities were won by the opposition in 2019 after being under the rule of his AKP and Islamist predecessors for the previous 25 years.

Erdoğan’s prospects have been helped by the collapse of the opposition alliance that he defeated last year, though Imamoğlu still appeals to voters beyond his main opposition Republican People’s Party.

Voters of the main pro-Kurdish party were crucial to Imamoğlu’s 2019 success. Their DEM party this time is fielding its own candidate in Istanbul, but many Kurds are expected to put aside party loyalty and vote for him again.

In the mainly Kurdish southeast, DEM is looking to reaffirm its strength after the state unseated pro-Kurdish party mayors following previous elections over alleged ties to militants.

One factor working against Erdoğan is a rise in support for the Islamist New Welfare Party due to its hardline stance against Israel over the Gaza conflict and dissatisfaction with the Islamist-rooted AKP’s handling of the economy.

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