Peace was a recurring theme in the 2024 New Year messages of European leaders. But the question remains: How can we truly achieve it, and make it sustainable?

Si vis pacem, para bellum. If you want peace, prepare for war. The famous phrase is adapted from a statement found in Roman author Publius Flavius Vegetius Renatus, born in the 4th century.

The idea is clear: Discourage the perceived enemy.

For 70 years, Europeans had thought war was a thing of the past. The Yugoslav wars somewhat shook this notion, but this was then quickly forgotten. These days, however, the prospect of large-scale conventional warfare by the end of the decade is more imaginable.

And unfortunately, war cannot be something abstract, it would affect every family.

One of the questions arising is if we should also envision a return to conscription.

Given the German legacy of World War Two, the country’s politicians are hesitant to speak of the prospect of another war with Russia.

However, Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said recently that the EU could be facing “dangers” from Russia by the end of this decade, and that it was time for European countries to adapt to the changed geopolitical landscape, especially as the US could reduce their engagement on the continent.

“We now have around five to eight years to catch up – both regarding the armed forces, industry, and society,” the German defence minister urged.

Conscription is nowadays a topical issue both in Russia and in Ukraine. The two countries are very different, not only in size but in Russia being an autocracy and treating its recruits as cannon fodder, often sending them to the front without training and backup.

Also, Russia recruits mostly in remote impoverished regions, preserving the population of Moscow and St Petersburg to create a shop window of normalcy. The Kremlin has reportedly sought to recruit 400,000 soldiers from across Russia in 2023.

Conversely, although general mobilisation was announced immediately after the 24 February 2022 Russian invasion, Ukraine has relied mostly on professional military and volunteers, and it has provided them with Western-style training, gear, and supplies.

At the same time, it has made efforts to preserve the youngest for the sake of the nation’s future.

But with the war entering its third year in February, there is a need for replacement and rotation of troops.

On 19 December, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the Ministry of Defence had proposed to mobilise 450,000 to 500,000 additional citizens, including Ukrainian men living abroad. He added that if needed, the conscription age could be reduced from 27 to 25 years.

Zelenskyy’s comments coincided with Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin signing a decree ordering an increase of 170,000 in the Russian armed forces. According to the document, the regular strength of the Russian armed forces is now set at 1,320,000 servicemen.

In contrast, last October the Bundeswehr said it counted 181,383 soldiers in its ranks — still some distance from the target of 203,000 that the German military hopes to reach by 2025.

This is why conscription, something the Federal Republic of Germany ended in 2011, is also up for debate. “There were reasons at the time to suspend compulsory military service. In retrospect, however, it was a mistake,” Pistorius told newspaper Die Welt earlier in December.

Conscription differs across the EU. While it has been lifted in most countries after the end of the Cold War, it has been maintained in Greece, due to its tensions with Turkey.

In the EU, Lithuania became a frontrunner by introducing male conscription in 2015, after ending it in 2008, due to concerns about the geopolitical environment in light of the Russian annexation of Crimea.

More recently, Latvia passed a law in April 2023 calling for the mandatory reintroduction of military conscription after it was abolished in 2007.

In Sweden, compulsory military service was suspended in 2010 and then reintroduced in 2017.

“I’m looking at models such as the Swedish model, where all young men and women are conscripted and only a select few end up doing their basic military service. Whether something like this would also be conceivable here is part of these considerations,” said Germany’s Pistorius.

In the country I know best, Bulgaria, the army struggles to recruit. According to available data, our army counts 37,000 people, compared to more than 600,000 in World War I and 200,000 during the Cold War.

I served for 18 months from 1980 to 1981; frankly, most of this time was a waste, for both me and the army. Thank God we didn’t fight a war, I don’t think we were sufficiently prepared.

I am sure conscripts could be trained more smartly now, in two to three months, and get regular re-training. Drivers could learn to drive military vehicles, and IT specialists to integrate military IT units.

Without the war in Ukraine, Bulgaria would not have started modernising its army, replacing Soviet equipment first used by the grandfathers of today’s military.

Like many other Europeans, maybe we are starting to realise that our tiny professional army is not a deterrent to a power driven by the ideology of restoring the “greatness” of the Soviet bloc.

We live in democracies, and we should debate the issues our societies are confronted with. I think it’s high time a considered and smart conversation about conscription enters this debate.

[Edited by Nathalie Weatherald/Zoran Radosavljevic]