After its brutal invasion of sovereign Ukraine, Russia cannot be a choice for Serbia – because support for crimes cannot be a choice for any nation and its leadership, writes Orhan Dragaš.

Orhan Dragaš is the founder and director of the International Security Institute based in Belgrade.

The President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, recently said there are no Serbian sanctions against Russia because 85% of Serbian citizens support and love Russia.

Is this policy of the Western Balkans’ largest country sustainable, in light of Russia’s exclusion from the rest of Europe, the West, and civilisation? The answer is no, and only one question merits consideration: when, not if, a significant change will occur?

Vučić does not exaggerate when he talks about the huge percentage of Serbian citizens who have warm feelings towards Russia. But that is not a parameter according to which a statesman should make the right decision for his citizens. His job and state obligation are to set aside the majority’s feelings and make choices based on reason and facts.

Contrary to this sentiment, there are compelling rational reasons why this decision should be reversed. Western partners are losing patience with Serbia because of its reluctance to align with the strong European response to Moscow’s brutality and worst crimes seen after World War II.

Everyday life of not only the 85% – but 100% – of the citizens of Serbia is firmly connected to Europe, not Russia. Two-thirds (about 61%) of Serbia’s trade is with EU economies, with Russia only about 5%. Of all foreign investments in Serbia, which are by far the largest in the region, almost 70% come from the EU and less than 10% from Russia. Along with domestic companies, Western investors are by far the largest employers in Serbia, with hundreds of thousands working in their companies.

What will the Serbian economy give up when (and not if) it imposes economic sanctions on Russia – a little less than a billion dollars in exports, mostly of food and industrial? That is less than Serbia exports to neighbouring Bosnia and Herzegovina ($1.35 billion) or almost as much as it exports to Kosovo, which it does not even recognise as a state.

In anticipation of a change in Serbian policy towards Russia, an analogy with 1948 is appropriate, when the leader of the then Yugoslavia, Tito, severed ties with the USSR and Stalin. It was incomparably harder for the leader of communist Yugoslavia to make that decision than it is for Aleksandar Vučić today, because Stalin had hundreds of thousands of USSR soldiers in the region ready to invade Yugoslavia at any moment.

At the same time, sentiment towards Stalin was so strong that thousands of Stalinists in Yugoslavia were prepared to support the invasion from within, even at the cost of long-term imprisonment. Many Yugoslav generals and security officials considered Moscow and Stalin their bosses, not Belgrade and Tito. They were ready to die for the USSR and Stalin.

Today, there is no such threat in Serbia. More significantly, Serbia is surrounded by NATO member countries, and regardless of one’s feelings toward Russia, no one in Serbia would be willing to go to prison, let alone die, for Putin.

The fact is that Russia has been behaving destructively towards Serbia for years, treating it as its province, convinced that everything is allowed. Russian intelligence services are the principal exponent of that aggressive attitude, not only towards Serbia but also towards the entire Western Balkans.

Finally, regarding the “umbilical cord” connecting Serbia and Russia, which is the alliance regarding Kosovo, we may conclude that it was severed on 24 February 2022, when Putin attacked Ukraine. Isolated from the most important international forums, Russia is now rejected by the world community.

Moscow will continue to say that it is protecting Serbia and Kosovo, both in the UN and other organisations, but that is what the helpless and isolated, whose voice is worthless in international relations, says. Serbia does not need such Russia. Serbia must distance itself and turn to its own interests.

Russian supporters in Serbia frequently say that Moscow has never imposed sanctions on Serbia, which is simply not true. Out of about 150 resolutions passed by the Security Council in the early 1990s regarding the disintegration of Yugoslavia, a dozen provided for penalties and sanctions against the then FR Yugoslavia, that is, sanctions against Serbia, and none had a Russian veto.

As Russia has engaged in the imposition of sanctions on Serbia, now, when it should retaliate with a similar measure, Belgrade should not have any consideration for Moscow. Serbia should respond to Russia in the same vein.

After its brutal invasion of sovereign Ukraine, Russia cannot be a choice because support for crimes cannot be a choice for any nation and its leadership. Today, being a friend and associate of Putin’s Russia means being an accomplice. It is no longer a question of geopolitical affection for a particular side but a question of civilisation.

Vučić has a historic chance to secure a permanent place for his country in the family of the most advanced nations. He is a man who wants to be remembered for something great, to leave a legacy. Now he has a chance. He should not think about public opinion polls because a true statesman leads his people, he does not follow them.

Serbia cannot remain neutral because that would be disastrous for it. It would not be able to withstand even some partial sanctions, which are well remembered by generations of its citizens, let alone complete isolation from Europe and the world.

The decision must be quick. The only choice is Serbia in the EU. That is why it is significant for the EU to start integrating Serbia and everyone else in the Balkans as soon as possible, because the Ukrainian tragedy showed what danger lurks if the EU is slow, indecisive and confused towards those who want to join it.

If this continues, nothing will stop Putin and Russia from trying to move their aggression from Ukraine to the Balkans, which they also do not want to see in a large European family. And there will be no brave Ukrainian men and women in the Balkans to oppose the Russian aggressor. Possibly some will greet them as liberators.

To avoid this, crucial decisions must be reached in Belgrade, Brussels, and other European cities. The first step must be taken by Serbia.