With EU enlargement on the rebound since Russia invaded Ukraine, member states have been asked to explore how a future enlarged bloc could function though, at least initially, without considering EU treaty reform, according to an internal note seen by EURACTIV.
The note comes ahead of an informal gathering of EU affairs ministers in Stockholm on Thursday (22 June), where EU affairs ministers are expected to hold a first informal debate on “the union’s general policy objectives, budgetary and financial issues, and the institutional setup.”
“We must focus on the changes deemed strictly necessary for our Union to function effectively,” read the note sent by the Swedish EU Council presidency to member states.
“That means identifying the must-haves, rather than the nice-to-haves, bearing in mind that even minor reforms will face obstacles,” Swedish European Affairs Minister Jessika Roswall wrote in the note.
For Thursday’s discussion, the Swedish presidency has put forward three questions: a focus on the policy areas likely to be affected most by enlargement, implications for the budget distribution in the next ten years, and potential institutional changes.
EU countries have already flagged the EU seven-year budget (MFF), which stands at €1.8 trillion and only has five net contributors, as a potential reform target.
While the note did not detail what changes the EU might need to make regarding future enlargement, Roswall wrote, “Importantly, to have a fruitful discussion of substance, the starting point should not be the issue of treaty reforms”.
“Since initiating such a process at this point would be both divisive and cumbersome, it should be embarked upon only with a broadly shared view of what we need to change,” the Swedish minister wrote.
A dinner preceding the eve of the meeting is expected to feature former Finnish prime minister Alexander Stubb and Italian political scientist Nathalie Tocci as experts on the issue.
Thursday’s discussion will be led in an EU presidency trio format by Sweden, Spain, and Belgium and is expected to be held in three smaller groupings of member states, according to a separate internal note seen by EURACTIV.
The first group, led by Sweden, will feature Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, and the European Commission.
The second group, led by Spain, will comprise Austria, Finland, France, Greece, Ireland, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Slovenia, and the European Council legal service.
Belgium is expected to lead the discussion in the third group of Denmark, Germany, Latvia, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, and the General Secretariat of the Council.
EU leaders might also touch upon the issue of future enlargement when they meet for their regular summit in Brussels on 29-30 June.
An early set of EU summit draft conclusions, seen by EURACTIV, did not indicate that the EU leaders’ debate would have any practical outcomes on enlargement.
However, EU officials say they are expected to reiterate the importance of the European Commission’s autumn enlargement package as the way forward.
Oral assessment
Separately, the Commission is also expected to deliver its long-awaited ‘oral assessment’ on the progress of Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia in fulfilling the EU executive’s recommendations issued when the trio applied for EU candidate status last year.
The update will first be given to EU ambassadors in Brussels on Wednesday (21 June) and then delivered by Enlargement Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi to European affairs ministers in Stockholm on Thursday (22 June).
Although the update is not expected to be extensive, speculation is already rife that Ukraine (and maybe even Moldova) could get the recommendation to start accession talks in December.
Over recent months, Kyiv said it has stepped up work on reforms to the Constitutional Court and the implementation of anti-oligarch and media laws, which still require work, experts say.
Moldova also has been racing to fulfil the reform recommendations, working more closely with the Venice Commission than the other two and positioning itself as a credible international partner. Chișinău, though, still has plenty of work to do in the fight against corruption.
Georgia, meanwhile, is confident it will be granted EU candidate status by the end of the year, though this might be based on a potentially dangerous assumption that anything else could push it further towards Moscow.
For Tbilisi, however, tackling political polarisation is likely to be challenging, with the prospect of a crucial election next year.
[Edited by Alice Taylor/Zoran Radosavljevic]
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