Why Trump’s Rare Earth scramble makes no sense

Donald Trump is talking about rare earth elements as part of his tariff and trade wars, like they are magic rings with the power to unlock world domination. The US President is on the brink of signing a multi-billion dollar deal with Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, that would give the US access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals in exchange for financial security and continued military support in the war with Russia. Rare earths are critical for manufacturing electronics, batteries, magnets, and military weapons. But are these rare earth elements actually as rare and valuable as Trump has been led to believe? Watch all episodes of If

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During his administration, former U.S. President Donald Trump repeatedly highlighted the strategic importance of rare earth elements (REEs) and the need to break America’s dependence on China for their supply. His policies included executive orders, tariffs, and proposed investments in domestic mining and processing facilities. However, a deeper analysis reveals that the Trump administration’s approach to rare earths was largely misguided, oversimplified, and counterproductive on multiple levels.

Understanding Rare Earth Elements

Rare earth elements are a group of 17 chemically similar metallic elements essential to modern technology. They are used in everything from smartphones and electric vehicles to military systems such as radar, missiles, and jet engines.

Despite their name, rare earths are not particularly rare geologically, but they are difficult to extract and refine economically and safely. China currently dominates the global supply chain, accounting for over 80% of global REE production and refinement, thanks to its long-term investment, industrial policy, and lower environmental standards.

The Strategic Misunderstanding

Trump’s primary justification for launching a rare earth policy scramble was national security. He viewed China’s dominance as a threat, particularly in light of escalating trade tensions. While it is true that dependence on a geopolitical rival for strategic materials is risky, the approach taken ignored some critical realities:

1. Mining ≠ Supply Chain Independence

The Trump administration focused heavily on reopening domestic mines, such as the Mountain Pass mine in California. However, mining is only one component of the REE supply chain. The real bottleneck lies in processing and refining, an area where China has a near-monopoly.

Ironically, while the U.S. did ramp up extraction, the ore was often still being sent to China for processing. Without developing domestic or allied-country processing capabilities, the U.S. remained reliant on China.

2. Ignoring Economic Viability

Rare earth mining and processing are capital-intensive and environmentally damaging. Trump’s “America First” approach clashed with the economic reality that domestic REE operations struggle to compete with Chinese prices. Chinese subsidies and lax environmental enforcement make their industry highly competitive, whereas U.S. regulations and labour costs create a significant disadvantage.

Pushing for economically unfeasible domestic production without a coherent industrial strategy or long-term incentives rendered many of these projects unsustainable.

3. Short-Termism and Lack of Strategic Vision

The Trump administration treated rare earths as a short-term national emergency rather than a long-term strategic endeavour. There was little coordination with allies, insufficient investment in research and development, and a lack of focus on recycling and alternative materials.

Strategically, diversifying sources through partnerships with countries like Australia, Canada, and EU members would have been more effective than isolationist mining pushes.

Environmental and Legal Contradictions

Another inconsistency in Trump’s approach was the contradiction between environmental deregulation and rare earth ambitions. REE mining and refining produce radioactive waste and toxic by-products. Environmental concerns have historically led to the decline of U.S. REE operations.

While Trump tried to loosen environmental rules to stimulate mining, this move was met with public backlash, legal challenges, and resistance from states and environmental groups. In the end, his administration was caught in a paradox: trying to revive a dirty industry in a country with strong environmental norms.

Technological Myopia

Rather than investing in innovation, recycling technologies, and alternative materials, the Trump administration focused on traditional mining. Countries like Japan have made significant progress in extracting rare earths from electronic waste or ocean sediments, while the EU has funded extensive research into REE substitution.

The U.S., under Trump, did not sufficiently fund such initiatives. This technological myopia hindered efforts to build a sustainable and future-ready supply chain.

Missed Opportunities for Global Collaboration

One of the biggest strategic missteps was failing to coordinate rare earth policy with allies. In an era of globalised supply chains, strategic resources must be managed through international cooperation, not nationalist isolation.

Rather than creating a “Western rare earth alliance” to counter China, Trump’s trade wars and diplomatic tensions undermined trust and cooperation with potential partners. As a result, the U.S. faced China’s dominance alone.

Conclusion

Trump’s rare earth scramble was emblematic of a broader trend during his presidency: reactive policymaking driven by political optics rather than informed strategy. While recognising the strategic importance of rare earths was valid, the chosen approach was flawed.

By focusing solely on mining, neglecting processing infrastructure, ignoring environmental and economic challenges, and alienating international partners, the Trump administration failed to build a credible or sustainable rare earth supply chain. A smarter policy would involve international collaboration, investment in R&D, environmentally responsible practices, and long-term strategic vision.

The lesson is clear: solving rare earth dependence requires more than executive orders and headlines — it demands global cooperation, technological innovation, and nuanced economic planning.

If you’d like a comparative analysis of current U.S. or EU rare earth policies, or a breakdown of China’s strategic advantages in this sector, I’d be happy to provide that as well.