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Two polls have Labor third on primary votes, five months out from the Victorian election
Furthermore, polls suggests One Nation will likely play a significant role in November’s state election. While the party has been around for close to 30 years, it has struggled to win representation in the Victorian parliament. That may be about to change.
The Labor Party in Victoria is going through its most difficult period in the 21st century.
An orderly transition of power to a new leader will mitigate what could be potentially weeks of internal fighting and uncertainty, with a state election looming in November. This would distract Labor MPs and make it easy for the opposition to criticise the government for being too focused on itself rather than the state.
In 2018, Andrews consolidated Labor’s strength in the lower house by leading the party to a very strong victory. However, the government was soon confronted by the onset of the COVID pandemic.
Andrews casts a large shadow
Despite this, Labor cannot afford to take this margin for granted. It is confronted by a resurgent opposition, the unpredictability of One Nation, and the problem of having to appear to be a fresh party even though it has been in government for almost 12 years.
Concerns about state debt have given the Coalition a strong platform to launch attacks on the government, as has the government reneging on hosting the 2026 Commonwealth Games due to cost concerns.
However, the Coalition’s time in government was short. Baillieu resigned as premier and was replaced by Denis Napthine in early 2013. The Coalition lost the 2014 election to Daniel Andrews’ Labor. Since then, Labor has looked like an unstoppable election-winning machine.
It was during this period that Andrews arguably became an even more polarising figure in Victorian and national politics. Strict social distancing measures, as well as lengthy lockdowns, elicited strong support from some but also mobilised strong opposition from others.
Despite the apparent polarisation, Andrews led Labor to another strong win in the 2022 election. In September 2023, Andrews resigned and Allan replaced him as premier.
Legacy problems for Allan
Arguably one of the most prominent issues has been crime in Victoria. High-profile crimes involving young people, knives and stolen vehicles have captured media attention. Despite moves to implement tougher laws, the issue continues to be challenging for the government.
Even if there was to be a change of leader, however, it’s no certainty that voters will gravitate towards Labor once more. Ben Carroll has held several ministries since being first elected to parliament in 2012 and, in addition to being deputy premier, is currently minister for education. In this portfolio, he has been involved in a lengthy process of settling a new pay deal with teachers, a process that resulted in educators striking last week for the second time this year.
Claims and allegations of corruption, for example, have been prominent especially on major infrastructure projects across the state.
Until recently, the Labor Party has been a remarkably successful political force in Victoria. This has been in contrast to the Liberal opposition, which seems to have been mired in internal disunity.
The Liberal Party has been impacted by disputes and divisions over personnel and policy settings for many years, with divisions between socially conservative and socially progressive members fuelling a sense of disunity. The Liberal Party has also gone through several leaders since being in opposition, with the party appointing the current leader, Jess Wilson, in late 2025.
The leadership of Premier Jacinta Allan is under serious threat, and divisions appear to have crystallised within the government over who should lead it to the election due in November this year.
Now, however, it’s Labor looking like a party rife with divisions and electoral despair.
What happens now?
The Allan government has been confronted by significant and persistent policy challenges, many of which have their origins in the Andrews era.
Labor will go into the 2026 election with a healthy buffer in the lower house, currently holding 54 of its 88 seats.
A new leader may not be enough to offset these challenges for Labor.
Having won power in 1999 with Steve Bracks at the helm, Labor remained in government until 2010. By that stage, Bracks had resigned and was replaced with John Brumby, who could not stop Ted Baillieu leading the Coalition to victory in 2010.
The next few days will be pivotal in Labor’s contemporary history in Victoria.
While enjoying a high public profile, Allan struggled to attract the same level of electoral support that Andrews had. At least one regular poll indicated Labor’s primary vote was on a downward trajectory during her leadership.
The government has also grappled with complex problems such as addressing cost of living, housing availability, and concerns about housing affordability.
