Many Pauline Hanson supporters judge her by standards very different from those they apply to other politicians. For them, she’s a medium through which to register their general feelings of grievance and alienation. So they don’t care much if she flouts ordinary rules.

When Robinson asked the nationality or origins of these people, Hanson said:

The publicity out of Britain and Europe stretches the patience of Joyce. He insisted to Nine on Friday, “Pauline’s doing a great job as the leader. We’re good mates, we talk all the time and I find it a very easy, constructive relationship to be in as far as politics goes, to be quite frank”.

Leaders are judged in part by who they choose to associate with – and British far-right figure Tommy Robinson is definitely not someone of good repute, personally or politically.

Nor would Joyce be much impressed by Hanson continuing to talk up her daughter Lee Hanson as a potential future head of One Nation.

Joyce, not a stranger to going OTT on occasion, nevertheless can’t but be concerned at his leader’s judgement, to say nothing of the problem also being caused by One Nation senator Malcolm Roberts as debate swirls around his penchant for conspiracy theories.

Will they start to think this leader they’ve believed isn’t like the rest of the political class is getting too big for her boots?

“But it is quite known that in the Muslim streets, you’ve got quite a lot in that street who are on the NDA scheme, so we know that it’s actually happening.”

It was the latest in her years of targeting Muslims.

As it’s played out, Hanson’s overseas odyssey smacks of a risky personal indulgence. Coming polls will test whether it has been counter productive.

It’s notable, incidentally, how often and quickly politicians respond to what some say are virtual summonses from Rinehart. Remember Peter Dutton dashing across the continent for a brief appearance at a Rinehart party? Say no, and maybe there is not so much Rinehart political largesse available. And what’s it about from Rinehart’s end? Is it an assertion of the power of money, or a sign of personal loneliness?

Appearing on Robinson’s podcast, in a mutual admiration chat, Hanson was unfiltered, alleging Muslims are exploiting the National Disability Insurance Scheme.

But is there a limit to this tolerance – a limit Hanson has tested with her recent behaviour? In the past, Barnaby Joyce has warned those over-hyping One Nation’s prospects of the danger of flying “too close to the sun”. Will some supporters see Hanson to have been doing just that in the company she’s kept during her current overseas trip?

Hanson has given the Seven Network’s Spotlight program special access during her travels, including to the recording of the podcast. That will kick along the publicity – not necessarily in a good way.

Joyce defends the appearance with Robinson, saying Robinson would not be the figure he is if there was not the schism in Britain between “the Judeo-Christian premise and the Islamist premise – and we do not want that in Australia”.

A while ago Rinehart gave Hanson a plane. That attracted controversy and criticism but Hanson’s supporters probably buy her line that the plane enables her to get around to remote places to meet the voters.

“A lot of people come into Australia purely for the welfare system, or to get on our NDIS,” she said.

Others might call it a rough political marriage. But still not nearly as rough as his previous relationship with then Nationals’ leader David Littleproud.

FOOTNOTE: Barnaby Joyce is going abroad next week, accompanied by three of his four daughters, to meet the parents of his fourth daughter’s French boyfriend. Where are they getting together? Sicily, as it happens. But they are not expecting Gina.

If Tommy Robinson was unquestionably bad company to keep, by enjoying Gina Rinehart’s company at a luxury resort in Sicily and an upmarket fashion show, Hanson sent out an off-key message.

However the pictures of her swanning around a pool with Rinehart might jar with some of these same supporters who laud her as a woman of the people empathising with their struggles in hard times.

She also claimed Sharia law was operating in Australia.

A lot of them are ripping the system off, who are a lot from the Muslim areas, and they’re getting on the scheme. But there’s a lot of Aussies too – other Aussies. So I’m not just going to pick them out.

The post View from the Hill: Has Hanson flown too close to the sun for some One Nation supporters? appeared first on MASSIVE News.

The teal wave has been hailed as a welcome feature of our democracy. How refreshing to have a bevy of free-thinking, free-speaking independents (even if a couple are now forming a new party). But it has also contributed to the decline of a major “party of government” and, some would say, by extension and indirectly to the rise of One Nation. And that is bringing its costs.

This overlooks an important point. While the federal spending during COVID, judged in retrospect, was obviously more than needed, it kept a lot of people and businesses going. The Liberals might rightly want to distance themselves from Scott Morrison, but that government’s COVID record was far from as bad as now portrayed.

But another quick change of leader, to Andrew Hastie, wouldn’t necessarily help. Hastie came into parliament (at a 2015 byelection) only a couple of years after Taylor (2013) but he is less experienced in senior frontline positions.

The Liberals don’t know how to respond to One Nation. Hastie is adamant be won’t “bend the knee” to the insurgents. Some Liberals want accommodation. Taylor’s language varies, as he seeks to avoid offending One Nation supporters. “I never attacked One Nation voters, and I never would. I never will,” he said on Monday.

One time Florence bogged, opening up a sink hole. The second time she was wedged in rock.

When well prepared, Hastie can be a strong political performer, but he has been knocked around by the vicious attacks on him over giving evidence against Ben Roberts-Smith, the VC winner accused of five counts of the war crime of murder. Hastie’s political resilience – an incredibly important quality in politics – has yet to be tested.

Liberals are tossing overboard their past, like a sinking ship discarding ballast.

While the main attention has been on a drop in One Nation’s support (and Labor’s rise), the equally important message is what’s happening to the Coalition vote. In Newspoll it’s down a point to 17%. In Redbridge it’s fallen two points to 18%.

Then there is the “wedge”, or wedges, the Liberals face.

The Liberal Party reminds one of that cumbersome machine, nicknamed Florence, that became stuck (twice) in a tunnel in the Snowy 2.0 project.

They’ve tried the leadership switch, and that hasn’t worked. Angus Taylor gets into muddles (as he did last week over multiculturalism). He looks as though he’d rather be back on his farm than having to be out and about every day, everywhere, which is the brief for an opposition leader. He is not cutting through.

More generally, the Liberals are wedged between needing to attract back voters who have fled to One Nation but also small-l former Liberal voters who have backed the teals. That surely is an ideological and policy needle that defies threading.

The success of the teals in taking Liberal seats has been a major factor in the Liberals’ parlous position.

“That takes a lot of work inside the party to go back to our roots, and then to look at our messaging and our communications to the Australian public, because you can’t keep getting poll after poll saying that it’s diabolical out there and just ignore it.”

For any revival, the Liberals need to win back urban seats, but the teals are now substantially dug in.

Both problems beset the Liberals as two more polls published at the weekend document their strife.

Read more:
Two new polls show drop in support for One Nation and the Coalition

“I’m putting myself out on a limb a little bit,” McIntosh said. “I think it’s time for the Liberal party to rebrand itself. Some people think that we’re stuck in the past and our policies need to resonate with the Australia of today and the future. So I think it’d be a really good time for us to revisit our values. What we stand for and the way we project ourselves to Australians.

Anyway, if the Liberals changed leaders again soon and it didn’t work, what then? No obvious candidates would remain, although shadow treasurer Tim Wilson would see himself as an option.

Various desperate suggestions are being put forward. Frontbencher Melissa McIntosh, interviewed on Monday on Sky, which is having to change its name for licence reasons, suggested the Liberals should rebrand too.

The teals defeated a number of Liberal moderates. In Kooyong Monique Ryan took out a potential future leader, Josh Frydenberg. If Frydenberg had held Kooyong he would have likely become leader either after the 2022 election or the 2025 one.

Peter Dutton has of course been thoroughly trashed. Taylor is criticising the Liberals’ record in COVID. He said on Monday, “I think during COVID we allowed big government to become accepted […] we needed to come out of COVID with a strong plan to pare back on both spending and the role of government in people’s lives”.

For Liberals determined to look on the bright side, however, Florence eventually did get out of her predicament. A recent Snowy Hydro video “Catching up with Florence!” shows her moving. Taylor can only hope.

As they agonise about their situation, Taylor is putting forward what is more or less a classic Liberal economic agenda. Economics is traditionally the Liberals’ strong ground but their current messages are not suiting the mood of a disgruntled electorate. Not that voters listen to a leader many of them have written off.

The post View from The Hill: Liberals now wedged in tunnel, staring at a sinkhole appeared first on MASSIVE News.

An advocate for indexing tax brackets to inflation, Holden said “this would end bracket creep forever.

.2 billion in additional income support for Jobseekers

.5 billion in additional payments for Aged Pensioners

Then opposition leader Peter Dutton flirted with the idea before the last election but did not commit to it as a policy promise.

.4 billion in additional payments for Disability Support Pensioners

“Even pre-crisis, bracket creep was significant. Based 2.5% per annum inflation over a decade a taxpayer on average full time earnings would go from paying an average tax rate of 22.8% to 25.9% over a decade.”

“There’s a range of tax measures you can do to really go hard on equity. That’s not at the front of them.”

.5 billion in additional financial support for Carers

Economist Richard Holden, from UNSW, points out that “bracket creep” – inflation pushing people into higher tax brackets – will worsen as a result of the Iran war.

With all the talk about the May 12 budget containing significant tax reform, Anthony Albanese sounded very sensitive when confronted about one big reform his government won’t be making.

“The higher inflation flowing from the ongoing impact of the energy crisis will lead to more bracket creep than before,” Holden told The Conversation.

They include:

.5 billion to meet infrastructure cost pressures

On another tax front, Albanese has ruled out any new tax on gas exports, despite a strong public campaign for one.

Chalmers said the Middle East conflict meant higher borrowing costs on debt “that will hit the budget hard, and higher inflation that will flow through to higher payment costs”.

The Fraser government introduced tax indexation but later cut it back and then dropped it altogether.

More than billion in new and amended Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme listings

The spike in inflation from the Middle East conflict affects both the spending and revenue sides of the budget, increasing the cost of some programs but also boosting some revenue items.

• The prime minister bristled, first saying (wrongly) “no government has done that” and then going on, “you define it that way. I don’t think that’s the most – I think that’s a very big call from you,” he told editor Ben English.
• .5 billion to halve the fuel excise
• billion for the hospitals agreement with the states
• More than 0 million to respond to the antisemitic Bondi terrorist attack – with additional funding provisioned for the National Gun Buyback scheme.
• The figures cover the budget period, over five years from 2025-2026. (The hospitals agreement covers five years from 2026-27.)
• In a question-and-answer session at a forum run by the Daily Telegraph on Friday, it was put to Albanese, “You’re talking about fundamental and profound reforms, but why won’t you do the simplest and most effective reform and index income tax rates?”
• The budget will contain changes to the capital gains tax and negative gearing. They will be sold as promoting intergenerational equity, and helping with housing affordability.
• About billion for defence investments
• .5 billion in additional natural disaster support
• Pressed on whether such a change would not be about equity, Albanese said, “It’s an even bigger call for you to say that that’s the biggest thing we can do on equity in the budget. So, thank God you’re not on the ERC [expenditure review committee].
• Governments shy away from indexation because of the cost to revenue, and also the fiscal flexibility and political advantage they get when they have discretion over the timing and amount of tax cuts.

Meanwhile Treasurer Jim Chalmers has released updated numbers to show some of the “biggest spending pressures” on the budget.

Former treasury secretary Ken Henry has advocated indexing income tax thresholds. Henry said last year: “Fiscal drag has got so bad, politicians are getting away with blue murder – and they shouldn’t”.

“Many peer jurisdictions, including the United States, do exactly this. Politicians have an incentive not to do so, so they can dish out essentially fake tax cuts.”

The post View from The Hill: Albanese sensitive on one tax reform that won’t be in the budget appeared first on MASSIVE News.