A Democratic strategist is warning Democratic voters against complacency, arguing that the “blowout” midterm many are expecting could vanish — and the fix rests with one key demographic.

Writing at The Hill, Celinda Lake says that Republicans still have a massive war chest, Trump loyalists are still winning big, and redistricting efforts are likely to benefit the GOP.

“Democrats should be worried,” says Lake. “Although President Trump’s approval ratings have been in the doldrums and inflation is angering MAGA voters, the fragile agreement with Iran might help Trump’s numbers and revive Republicans’ chances in November.”

Lake says that Democrats should not rely on Trump administration “missteps” to take back control of Congress in November, but rather must “swell” their turnout at the ballot box.

That turnout relies on women voters — and specifically, those women she calls “skippers” and “flippers.”

Skippers are Democratic voters who did not turn out in 2024. Flippers are disaffected Republicans who could choose to vote Democratic.

“Trump has a serious problem when it comes to women’s votes,” says Lake. Citing a recent New York Times-Siena poll, she notes that nearly two-thirds (66 percent) of women disapprove of Trump’s performance. Another poll showed Democrats with a 21-point lead among women over Republicans. And 60 percent of young women disapprove of Trump as well.

There were millions of Democratic skippers, says Lake. And even convincing a small percentage of flippers to vote Democratic could “swing the outcome” of the election, as they’re not just adding one Democratic vote but reducing one Republican vote.

“My team’s analysis of 2024 exit polls showed that if less than 2 percent of Trump’s White non-college educated voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin had gone for Harris, she would have won the election,” Lake writes. “It’s likely that flipping a similarly small percentage of women would make the difference this year, even in newly-minted Republican districts.”

Other polls show “a majority of non-college-educated White Americans now disapprove of Trump’s performance.”

Lake warns that while Republicans ought to be frightened by these numbers, bad polling numbers do not automatically translate into votes for Democrats.

“We need to reach and persuade these women to turn out, especially if the Iran war actually ends and gas prices fall,” she writes. “Democrats must do the work to mobilize skippers and create flippers. If we want to lock up a victory in November, these women hold the keys.”

The post Midterm victory comes down to one very angry demographic: analysis appeared first on MASSIVE News.

With the midterms looming and Republicans projected to take major losses, the party is doing everything it can to shore up support. But in the face of that, there is growing concern within the GOP that President Donald Trump is an “albatross” dragging the party down as MAGA enthusiasm cools.

An example of this cooling, according to the Times, can be found in New York’s 17th congressional district, a swing seat that could play a key role in determining the balance of power in the House of Representatives after November. To succeed in the midterms, says the Times, Trump must turn out the vote in districts like the 17th: “However, it is proving difficult to energise the MAGA base when the president himself is not on the ballot.”

The Times points to a conversation with Mahopac resident and retired railworker James Sedlmayer, who on one hand supports the president, saying that Trump Derangement Syndrome is a “real disease,” but on the other admits that he’s “less likely to vote this November.”

This sort of midterm apathy is a real problem for Republicans who currently enjoy a slim six-seat majority in the House. That means that if Democrats flip just three seats, the balance of power in Washington will shake up dramatically. And districts like New York’s 17th make that appear likely. As the Times points out, “This year, the Cook political report altered its prediction for New York’s 17th congressional district from ‘lean Republican’ to ‘tossup.’”

Highlighting the district’s importance in this fight was Trump’s appearance there in May, when he visited to campaign for Representative Mike Lawler (R-NY). Lawler has emerged as a staunch supporter of Trump’s war, telling constituents, “I don’t care if I’m paying more for gas.” Trump himself has declared that he doesn’t think “even a little bit” about the strain the war puts on American finances.

This message doesn’t seem to have landed with the voters the GOP most needs to persuade, as “most swing voters appear unenthused by the Iran war, with just 26 percent of independents supportive of the conflict compared to 79 percent of Republicans.” Meanwhile, Trump himself “has a net approval rating of minus 24, according to a recent YouGov poll for CBS, a figure that is worse than Biden at his lowest ebb.”

“He’s an albatross. There’s no doubt about it,” says Douglas Heye, a political strategist and former communications director of the Republican National Committee. “Trump not only has low approval ratings, he focuses our attention on things that aren’t important to voters. Voters don’t want to hear about reflecting pools and art institutions and arches and things like that. They want to hear, ‘here’s what we’re doing about costs, here’s how we’re going to fix the problem in Iran.’”

The consequences of his plunging popularity could be dire for Trump’s agenda. As the Times explains, “Losing control of the House would mean the second half of his final term becoming bogged down in Democrat impeachment proceedings and subpoenas for congressional appearances. Losing control of the Senate would allow the Democrats to block Trump’s future Supreme Court nominees and cabinet appointments.”

The post GOP districts now a ‘tossup’ as MAGA cools on Trump appeared first on MASSIVE News.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren torched President Trump for his “I love inflation” remark. Richard Ojeda breaks it down on Rebel HQ.

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The post Warren HUMILIATES Trump Stooge Pushing GOP Talking Points appeared first on MASSIVE News.