We are in the middle of reshaping the electricity grid.

Household batteries, too, may play a role. The government’s hugely popular household battery incentive scheme will let people with solar store power at home, and use it during peak times instead of relying on expensive grid power.

In Victoria, which has its own separate default offer, retail prices will fall 5%.

This dynamic is likely to continue for some time. We can expect wholesale prices to keep falling, or at least not rise. We may also see network prices rising more sharply, given community pushback against some new transmission projects and slow progress. Without new transmission lines, many renewable projects won’t be viable.

What drives power prices?

We can also expect big batteries to flex their muscle in the grid, outcompeting gas peaking plants and keeping wholesale prices lower. The influence of these batteries is beginning to show, and it is accelerating.

Why are prices falling? Solar, wind and batteries can provide power more cheaply than fossil fuels, and renewables have reached as high as 50% in Australia’s main grid. They could have driven retail prices down further if not offset by the rising costs of new transmission lines.

The power savings are uneven. In South East Queensland, retail power prices will fall by 10.7% and in New South Wales by up to 7.7%. In South Australia, some customers will have a small price rise of 1.4%. Small businesses will see larger falls – as much as 20.9% in NSW.

Renewables and energy storage were pitched as a way to drive down power prices. But the hidden costs of the clean energy transition mean lower prices haven’t fully eventuated.

In recent years, the cost of producing wholesale power has dropped. This is because more wind and solar farms have come online, while grid-scale batteries are pushing gas power out of the grid at times.

The 20th-century model was built around peak demand – the handful of times a year when huge demand required standby plants to fire up and produce power at high cost. That’s now changing. Gas will go from providing perhaps 20% of Australia’s electricity to as low as 5%. It will be needed as a backup during low wind or sun days for some time.

What’s next?

But the big unknown is new transmission – the missing piece of the clean energy transition. Until this is done, we will keep seeing lower wholesale costs offset by higher network costs. But when it is complete, network costs, too, should fall.

The average power bill for an Australian household is around A,000 a year. The actual cost of wholesale power accounts for 30–40% of the bill. Network costs – the cost of getting the power to the consumer – make up another 40%. The remaining amount is due to environmental and retailer costs.

Despite this, the decision by the Australian Energy Regulator will be influential. Just as banks tend to follow a Reserve Bank decision on interest rates, energy retailers tend to be guided by the prices set under the default market offer.

Network costs have mostly increased, in a range of 5–10%. The key contributor has been the cost of building new transmission lines, and damage from extreme weather has also added costs in Queensland. Inflation adds extra cost to big projects.

These time-of-use tariffs will become increasingly important. For the first time, the energy regulator included both flat tariffs and time-of-use tariffs in its default market offer. Over time, and with further market reforms, we can expect to see more people take up time-of-use tariffs.

Smart meters make it possible for power retailers to charge customers different rates at different times. This encourages people to use more power when it’s cheap to produce, and less during peak times such as evenings.

In the messy middle

There are important caveats. The cheaper power will directly apply to customers on the default market offer, the safety net power plan overseen by the Australian Energy Regulator. Fewer than 10% of consumers are on this offer.

This means there’s less reliance on coal and gas. The role of gas is key, as this fossil fuel has become more expensive. It tends to be used only when demand is very high. At these times, gas acts as a price-setter for the energy market and the price it sets is high. So, other things being equal, less reliance on gas means lower prices.

In the next few years, more Australian households will have smart meters installed. In NSW, SA, the Australian Capital Territory and Queensland, rollout is meant to be complete by 2030. Western Australia and Tasmania have their own programs and Victoria’s rollout was completed more than a decade ago.

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The world’s largest nuclear plant is now supplying electricity to about 450,000 households, according to its operator TEPCO. The Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear station in Japan resumed commercial operations a month ago, after more than a decade offline. The restart is the latest of Japan’s efforts to revive its nuclear energy sector and reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels. CNA’s Michiyo Ishida reports.

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Regional differences

The researchers note that aerosols can also contribute to cloud formation, which also causes further losses. But the degree of that contribution is much harder to estimate, so the researchers focus on aerosols for much of the analysis. Some of those aerosols occur naturally, typically from dust kicked up by winds in desert regions. However, despite deserts’ reputation as sunny paradises, the world as a whole hasn’t built much solar infrastructure in the desert yet, so this isn’t as much of a factor as you might expect. 

Coal appears to be a major contributor. It’s estimated that sulfur dioxide aerosols, primarily produced through coal burning, account for nearly half of the aerosols analyzed here. Carbon-rich material, which also typically comes from fossil fuels, accounts for another 18 percent. 

The impact of aerosols, however, is not evenly distributed. In China, the researchers estimated that aerosols were reducing solar production by 7.7 percent overall and offsetting anywhere from a third to half of its annual growth. The researchers note that “the spatial distribution of photovoltaic losses in China mirrors that of its coal-fired power capacity,” and an analysis of pollution data from China shows that 30 percent of the losses due to aerosols can be attributed to coal burning. 

In contrast, most solar production in the US takes place in the south and west, while coal plants are more common in the east and northeast. As a result, the annual losses in the US were less than half of those seen in China (3 percent).

The good news is that things are getting better in China. In response to some severe pollution problems, the country built a new generation of high-efficiency coal plants and retired some of the worst polluters. And the data show that this is also benefiting solar power, with the impact of aerosols dropping over the last few years.

Even with the improvements, it’s striking that coal appears to be the only power source that actively reduces the productivity of what’s shaping up to be its primary competitor. It should also provide an impetus to move off coal more quickly, as at least some of the loss of coal production will be offset by enhanced productivity from solar.

Nature Sustainability, 2026. DOI: 10.1038/s41893-026-01836-5

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