Surprisingly, cost of living pressures did not dominate the discussion. While the majority of participants identified cost of living as a factor influencing their voting choice, the discussions focused on the realities of living in rural and regional areas: accessing quality health services, poor workforce availability, and the comparative lack of opportunities compared to their urban counterparts.

But behind this new sense of power hides some anxiety about being dismissed by politicians in Canberra. A feeling keenly felt by one participant: “Definitely, not in my lifetime of voting can I remember a time when I thought it mattered as much as it does now. And I’m a little worried by the protest vote and that the federal government, the city-centric sort of base way of thinking will say, ‘oh, well, they’re just rednecks from the country, that’s why they voted like that.’ And it’s much deeper than that.” (Male, Gen X)

But the Farrer by-election is changing all this, creating its own political energy and a renewed sense that their votes may influence the direction of regional representation for the first time in decades: “It’s really different this time… people are talking about politics” (Male, Gen X).

What does all this mean? Farrer is no longer predictable; this is a fluid electorate — and a highly competitive one. Farrer voters are pragmatic and fiercely local in their priorities. Party labels carry less weight. Issues, authenticity, and local relevance now matter more: “Not in my lifetime has it mattered as much as now.” (Male, Gen X)

Despite everything, one of the most striking findings is how engaged these voters remain. Acknowledging the bias of participants who chose to participate in a focus group about politics, the participants were far from disengaged or apathetic. They were informed, thoughtful, and eager. They firmly believed in Australian democracy — but they want it to work better for them, and they believe this byelection could be a turning point: “It’s really different this time. I went to pre-polling and people are quite aggressive and get in your face. And I’ve even noticed around, people never really talked about politics [before], and you’ve even got a divide between husband and wife now between certain candidates and they’re lobbying each other” (Male, Gen X)

In Australia’s regional heartland, something unusual is happening — and voters know it.

At the core of this mood was a profound sense of neglect, with participant voters repeatedly saying they felt invisible to decision-makers, who predominantly sit in metropolitan centres. Policies, they say, are crafted by people with little understanding of regional life — and the consequences are felt every day: “the biggest thing I see is a lot of big decisions getting made by people that live in big cities, [and it] just doesn’t work for us” (Female, Gen X).

If there was one point of consensus across the Farrer voters that participated in our focus group it is this: the Coalition is struggling. Both the Liberal Party and Nationals were described as divided, unfocused, and disconnected from regional priorities. This isn’t just dissatisfaction with policy — it’s a broader collapse of confidence in leadership and direction.

After 25 years of being represented by Ley, participating voters felt complacency had set in and the electorate was suffering: “You’re not at the front of the queue with a comfortable majority” (Male, Gen X).

This disconnect has bred more than dissatisfaction. It’s fuelling an appetite for change. For the first time in years, voters sense real uncertainty — and real power: “I think for the first time in at least some generations, there’s an opportunity to show the federal and the state governments that that Farrer matters, that regional areas are actually important, and that it’s not just about Lane Cove”. (Male, Gen X)

For decades, elections in regional seats such as Farrer have followed a familiar script: predictable outcomes, entrenched party loyalties, and little sense that individual votes could change the result. But with the retirement of Sussan Ley after 25 years in the seat this time is different, and voters and political pundits are all taking notice.

Into this vacuum steps protest politics. With Labor not entering the contest and the Coalition struggling, One Nation has emerged as a significant force — but not because voters are deeply aligned with its ideology. Instead, it’s seen as a vehicle for dissatisfaction, a way to send a message to the political establishment.

This isn’t just another regional byelection. It’s a warning shot. Rural voters are demanding attention, accountability, and action. They’re questioning old loyalties and exploring new options. And, for the first time in a long time, they believe their vote might truly count.

For a region long considered Coalition heartland, that’s a seismic shift with profound implications for the Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski. While participants acknowledged her credentials, they felt she lacked traction. This is perhaps not wholly her fault, with some expressing a distaste for the “woeful” and “trainwreck” Coalition: “I have been Liberal-National voting for as long as you could ever see. And I just don’t see a future for them, to be honest. Like they’re gone. It’s a death sentence” (Male, Gen X).

On Wednesday night we brought together eight Farrer voters in a focus group to share a snapshot of community views and insights prior to Saturday’s byelection. While no means a full representative sample of the Farrer electorate, this cross-section of voters — from Gen Z to Boomers — shared a powerful mix of frustration, pragmatism, and cautious optimism that is reshaping the political landscape. And the message is unmistakable: rural voters are no longer willing to be taken for granted.

Among the shifting currents, one candidate stood out with members of this small voter group: Independent Michelle Milthorpe. Her focus on local issues has resonated strongly across the group participants. Crucially, her appeal reflects a broader trend: voters aren’t just rejecting parties — they’re actively searching for representatives who feel grounded in local realities: “She’s advocating for healthcare […] that’s important to me” (Female, Gen Z)

This absence of a Labor candidate has cracked open the contest. Independents and minor parties are playing a larger role as a result, and voters are paying close attention. This is no longer a “safe seat” mindset. It’s a marketplace of ideas and for many, that’s energising: “You can see that coming through that people have had enough and they’re looking for other options. And I think that shows the strength of what’s going to occur at this by-election” (Male, Gen X).

Yet this support is uneven with one younger participant rejecting the party outright: “I don’t stand by anything One Nation stands for.” (Male, Gen Z). The result is a fragmented protest vote — powerful, but not unified. One that could have very real consequences at Saturday’s byelection given many political commentators are tipping One Nation to win Farrer, despite its candidate David Farley not finding much support across our focus group participants.

The post ‘Fed up, fired up, and finally heard’: inside the political earthquake brewing in Farrer appeared first on MASSIVE News.

One Nation has taken advantage of the ideological and factional instability of the Liberal Party. The conservative efforts to control the party has undermined unity and discipline. Shortly after Tarzia became leader, Conservative Ben Hood led the charge to ban late-term abortions. It led to an appalling debacle with moderate Liberal MP Michelle Lemsink forced to jump into a taxi to fend off the vote, while on medical leave recovering from cancer treatment.

One Nation has a realistic chance in two or three seats, such as Hammond. As Pauline Hanson put it at One Nation’s after party, she has left a series of “landmines” for the premier.

The tectonic plates of South Australian politics have fundamentally shifted. Peter Malinauskas’s Labor government has won a second term with a landslide win. The final count should see Labor win around 33 seats in the 47 seat House of Assembly. This result dwarfs the Labor “Rann-slide” of 2006.

This incident was a form of payback from conservative Liberals who felt disenfranchised during the Marshall Liberal government (2018-2022), which saw a number of moderate legislative successes.

The SA Liberals have been in structural decline for some time, and this has been accelerated by recent events. The Liberal leadership churn has undermined the party’s standing, with four leaders in four years. The party has faced a number of scandals across a range of seats including Mount Gambier, Narrungga, MacKillop and Black.

Key battlegrounds

In the regions, the Liberal vote collapse was exacerbated by the dominant rise of One Nation. In a striking irony, it could be Labor preferences that secure some Liberal holds. The Liberals’ decision to preference One Nation over Labor may also come back to haunt them.

It’s far from clear what a re-energised Liberal Party could look like. Party leaders may well invoke the ghost of Robert Menzies or the formula of John Howard, but neither of these premierships offer much to a shrunken Liberal Party in a far more fluid and fragmented Australian polity.

It’s highly likely the One Nation insurgency is here to stay.

Read more:
Labor easily wins South Australian election with One Nation beating Liberals into second on primary votes

Fractures on the right

On polling data, the One Nation surge began at the start of 2026, in the wake of the December 2025 Bondi terrorist attack. Historically, the party has had limited presence in South Australia, often returning a primary vote of about 4%.

Here is the ideological and strategic dilemma that state leader Ashton Hurn and federal leader Angus Taylor face. Conservatives will push the leaders to adopt One-Nation-lite policies to win back regional and former safe seats. Yet, moderates will argue that since the party is no longer in any meaningful sense a party of the city, it needs to radically overhaul its offerings to win back inner-city and more affluent suburban seats.

In regional areas and One Nation’s target seats, the party came first in the primary vote count, and in the seat of Narungga secured 37% of the primary vote. With unpredictable preference flows, the party could secure two lower house seats.

More telling, and an under-appreciated issue, is that the party is no longer able to retain MPs. Former MPs such as Dan Cregan (Kavel) and Jing Lee (MLC) – both of whom left to become independents – are symptomatic of a party where its members feel increasingly unwelcome.

Liberalism running out of steam

The conservative and right side of politics has fractured completely. There might be a temptation to see this as a one-off sugar hit for One Nation. Yet, this result has been coming for quite some time. The implosion of the SA Liberals is not a sudden phenomenon.

More pressingly, One Nation sees this as a springboard for the Victorian state election and the federal Farrer byelection.

A key flashpoint on election night was the exchange between moderate Liberal federal Senator Anne Rushton and state Liberal MP Nick McBride. Wearing an ankle bracelet as he faces trial for domestic violence charges (an allegation he strongly denies), McBride argued the Liberals have far more in common with One Nation than they do with Labor. Rushton, in contrast, argued the party should actively pursue its “liberal values”.

The SA Liberals suffered a humiliating and record loss, reduced to single digits, with perhaps as few as six seats in the lower house. The party will need to undergo a significant rebuild if it is to become competitive again.

Labor’s landslide came off the back of the Liberal collapse. Labor easily won a suite of metropolitan and suburban seats such as Colton, Morialta, and Hartley, the latter of which saw former Liberal leader Vincent Tarzia lose his seat. Former Liberal strongholds, such as the seat of Unley, fell to a disciplined Labor Party headed by the charismatic Peter Malinauskas.

The key story of the night was the insurgency of One Nation. The right-wing populist party has secured a higher primary vote than the Liberals, with a statewide total of 22% against the Liberals’ 19%.

The post One Nation’s surge and Liberal Party’s collapse in SA election reveal tectonic shifts in Australian politics appeared first on MASSIVE News.

“It was a two stage process over two days, so early morning flight to London, visit clinic, start process, then sit in a hotel room far from home, to then start leaking amniotic fluid, having been given a sheet of paper that says you may start to have contractions and possibly miscarry and there may be signs of life,” her mother said.

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