Voters in Thailand are set to choose their next government on Sunday after five years of living under military rule.
outcome of the election is unpredictable and could reignite tensions between supporters of the different political fractions in Thailand, added Pongsudhirak. Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy is no stranger to military takeovers and another coup cannot be ruled out if violence and protests break out once again after the vote, the professor said.
The Sunday vote will determine 500 members of the House of Representatives, the lower chamber of Thailand’s legislative branch. The ruling-junta will appoint the 250-member Senate, or the upper house.
The election is set to be a contest between three main political fractions: A pro-military camp, an anti-military group and parties that are neutral or undecided about the side with which they would align.
Harrison Cheng, associate director and lead analyst for Thailand at consultancy Control Risks, outlined his predictions for the major party in each of the fraction:
None of the parties are expected to single-handedly win enough seats in the House to form a government, partly due to the way votes will be counted after a change in the constitution in 2017. So, the 250 appointed senators will join their colleagues in the House to select the next prime minister to lead the next government.
That means Prayuth is likely to remain in office even if the party supporting him does not win big in the election. Assuming the current prime minister has the backing of all 250 senators, he will only need 126 supporters in the House to be take the helm again.
Even then, Prayuth’s return to office will likely not be a smooth process, noted Pongsudhirak.
If the retired general assumes the role without a clear mandate from voters and against the backdrop of overwhelming support for anti-military parties, Thailand could run into a constitutional crisis, the professor said.
“Nothing is straightforward in this election. I think there’ll be a lot of controversies” even before the final election results are announced, he said.
Thailand’s Election Commission has until May 9 to finalize the outcome of the March 24 vote. In between, the current ruling junta led by Prayuth is still in power and election candidates could still be banned or have their votes invalidated, noted Cheng.
Such meddling by the junta is likely if the largest anti-military party, Pheu Thai, is found to be to leading in the votes, he added.
“More radical possibilities include nullifying the entire election results and setting a new date for a national revote, or worse, a military coup that seeks to delay the return to civilian rule,” he explained. “Even if the military accepts the reality of a (Pheu Thai)-led winning coalition, it would be tempted to delay the formation of a new government.”
The uncertainties surrounding the upcoming general election are clouding Thailand’s economic outlook, economists from consultancy Capital Economics wrote in a recent note.
“Whoever wins, the shift towards economic populism is likely to continue, delaying reforms needed to raise productivity growth and deal with the worsening demographic outlook,” they said.
The economists added that, if a civil unrest breaks out, the country’s key tourism sector — which generates 18 percent of gross domestic product — could be severely hit. Violent protests could also affect business and consumer confidence, and cause financial markets to fall sharply, they said.
If there’s one silver lining for the Thai economy, it is that the new constitution requires the next government to stick to the junta’s 20-year national strategy plan, noted economists from Australian ANZ. The plan includes infrastructure spending and initiatives to lift Thailand up the production value chain.
That arrangement could provide the policy continuity that investors seek regardless of the election outcome, ANZ said.
