IT WAS la rentrée in France this week, when pupils return to school after the long summer holidays to begin a new academic year. The country’s president, Emmanuel Macron, will be hoping it marks a fresh start for him, too. On September 4th he was forced into a government reshuffle after unexpectedly losing his environment minister. With his poll ratings touching new lows after a troubled summer, Mr Macron badly needs to regain political momentum if he is to keep his plans to transform France on track.
A popular former television presenter and green activist, Nicolas Hulot (pictured centre), resigned abruptly in the middle of a radio interview last week, saying that although France was doing “more than most”, he deplored the “small steps” being taken to protect the planet. Mr Hulot, an outspoken campaigner who had in the past always refused to serve in government, was replaced by a career Green politician and loyal convert to Macronism, François de Rugy, who had been Speaker of the National Assembly.
The loss of Mr Hulot was the last thing Mr Macron needed. Questions about his judgment were raised in July, after his former bodyguard and trusted aide, Alexandre Benalla, was identified on video dressed as a policeman and beating up a protester. Mr Benalla was fired, but only after the video emerged in public. The murky affair seems to have wiped out any credit the president earned for his victory against the unions of the SNCF rail network earlier this summer. Mr Macron’s approval rating has dropped to 31%, according to Ifop. Another poll said that only 20% of Socialist voters, Mr Macron’s one-time party, approve of him. Slower economic growth has not helped. Nor has the president’s regal haughtiness, which has earned him the nickname “Jupiter”.
For now, Mr Macron seems undeterred. After some hesitation, his government is pressing ahead with a complex move to tax income at source, which it is feared will be hit by technical problems when it comes into place in January next year and dismay those not used to seeing income tax deducted directly from their pay slips. (At present, income tax is paid in arrears, generally in instalments.) Reforms to the benefit system, hospitals and pensions are all due shortly, and will push up against vested interests. To set against the disruption these will bring, the president will be hoping that a delayed cut to employee social charges, which comes into effect next month, will help lift the mood and boost consumer spending.
Perhaps the strangest aspect of Mr Macron’s domestic difficulties, though, is how little the political opposition seems to be able to make of them. La République en Marche, the party he invented and which holds a robust majority in parliament, has sucked in most of France’s moderates on the left and the right. The Socialists and Republicans, as a result, are rump parties struggling to find an attractive leader or a sense of purpose. Some polls suggest that the Socialist Party, historically one of the great institutions of French political life, could end up failing to pass the 5% threshold at elections to the European Parliament next May, and so with no seats at all.
For their part, the Republicans have found themselves drifting towards the right under an unconvincing new leader, Laurent Wauquiez. Their moderates are either in government (the prime minister, Edouard Philippe, and the finance minister, Bruno Le Maire, are both ex-Republicans) or running big regions (such as Valérie Pécresse in the Paris area). Equally striking, the political extremes—Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s Unsubmissive France—seem stuck on the protesting fringe. They are set for a fight. Mr Mélenchon has promised to turn the European election into a “referendum” on the president. Ms Le Pen usually does well in mid-term elections. Yet a recent poll (see chart) suggested that, were European elections held today, Mr Macron’s party would come out on top. The president is down in Paris, but not yet out.