As Macau scales its latest heights, never forget that it prospers solely at the sufferance of the authorities in Beijing. This month, those masters of Macau’s universe are using UnionPay as a reminder of their omnipotence. A couple of months back, it was Hainan island threatening Macau’s monopoly on casinos under the Chinese flag. Macau’s position as the global casino capital is unassailable but hangs on the slender thread of Beijing’s consent. When you see MGM spend US$3.4 billion on a resort that opens a mere 26 months before the expiration of its concession, it’s a reminder that Macau casinos crave high returns to balance their extraordinary risks.

The latest UnionPay issue involves removal of mainland bankcard system point of sale terminals from jewelry shops in Cotai casinos. From last week, shops reportedly were told terminals are being upgraded, without any indication of when, or if, terminals will be returned. UnionPay purchases of watches or baubles immediately redeemed for cash provide access to funds outside ATM restrictions.

JPMorgan analysts DS Kim and Sean Zhuang have been all over this latest UnionPay situation, reporting that Macau peninsula casinos are also impacted but not shops outside casinos doing similar transactions. So players can still get funds through UnionPay phantom purchases, with added inconvenience. The analysts see no accompanying crackdown on illegal portable UnionPay terminals that indicate transactions are taking place in the mainland, not Macau.

UnionPay purchase-for-cash transactions mainly benefit premium mass players who bet big but don’t get credit from casinos, a segment JPMorgan estimates accounts for 32% of Macau casinos’ Ebitda. Kim and Zhuang believe that up to half of premium mass player funds come via UnionPay transactions, so the impact on Ebitda could reach 16%, assuming players don’t get money by other methods.

Bank regulator Macau Monetary Authority issued an anodyne statement that cautions banks to take “adequate risk management measures” to prevent illegal transactions, then reminds consumers that only authorized money exchangers are authorized to exchange money. The statement pours cold water on the idea that authorities want to stop purchase-for-cash in casinos, though that’s exactly what appears to be happening. There’s no mention of what role, if any, mainland agencies may have had recent changes, or whether UnionPay terminals really are being upgraded. Welcome to Macau.

Opacity invites exploitation through disinformation. Property developers in Hainan regularly try to boost business by hinting that casinos may be coming to the island known as China’s Hawaii. The drumbeat reached a fever pitch in April, ahead of President Xi Jinping’s address to an international economic forum promising new aid for Hainan, which limps along on 55 million visitors a year, nearly double Macau’s count or six times that of the original Hawaii. Announcement of the aid package unleashed further frenzy with references to horse racing and sports lottery, suggesting those were clear steps toward giving Macau a casino rival on Chinese soil.

The Innovation Group Senior Vice President for International Operations Planning and Strategy Michael Zhu has actually read those April guidelines for Hainan and says there’s little there on the gambling side. The section that mentions sports lottery and horse races – without any suggestion of betting on race outcomes – focuses on more practical ways to increase visitor arrivals and spending, including cruise ship calls, duty free retail and medical tourism. “Such initiatives require relatively fewer resources, they can better leverage Hainan’s tropical island natural assets and are eco-compatible,” Zhu says.

On the larger question of casinos, there’s undeniably discontent in the mainland and Macau that foreigners, rather than Chinese companies, derive the lion’s share of benefits from Macau gaming. Macau’s new concession process, that could start later this year, will undoubtedly consider those concerns. If the mainland wants casinos, Hainan would be a logical choice as a popular tourist destination with physical separation, enabling some form of access control comparable to the permission required to visit Macau.

But don’t bet on it. “I see very little upside for casinos on the mainland,” Zhu says. On the downside, he sees ideological barriers, potential negative social impacts and the nightmarish challenge of administering what would necessarily be a state-owned and -controlled enterprise handling vast sums on behalf of an unwieldy constituency of stakeholders. “Keep in mind the two lotteries in mainland China generated more than US$67 billion last year,” Zhu says. He doesn’t envision casino gambling in mainland China in “the foreseeable future.”

Just because Macau will remain the only game in town doesn’t mean the authorities have to support it. UnionPay changes don’t represent a radical shift in Macau’s situation, just a change in tactics. President Xi’s anti-corruption campaign, that officials contend didn’t explicitly target Macau, shaved more than US$17 billion off gaming revenue and US$6 billion off industry Ebitda. Imagine what measures inside the casino itself could do, and proceed with caution.