After reviewing predictions for 2017, here are forecasts for 2018.

Macau concession extension

The gaming concession for SJM Holdings and its subconcession sold to MGM and Pansy Ho expires in March 2020, two years ahead of Macau’s other two casino licenses and their subconcessions. I predict Macau will extend the SJM concession to align it with the others. That will shift the question of what to do about the expiration of gaming concessions to Macau’s next chief executive, intensifying interest in next year’s contest to succeed Fernando Chui Sai-on. Sure, Beijing has a lot to say about what happens in Macau, but gaming concession details are one area where Macau leadership can assert itself.

Japan moves closer to casinos, but doesn’t finish

After passing the first of two casino legalization bills in December 2016, Japan was supposed to finish the job last year with passage of the Integrated Resort Implementation Bill. Instead, lawmakers added another hurdle, deciding legislation to address gambling addiction be approved first. The addiction bill is expected to pass this year.

For the second IR bill, legislators remain reluctant to support a measure that remains very unpopular with the public. Additionally, the casino industry wants its voices on the government’s so-called expert panel creating the industry regulatory framework. Including them meaningfully could delay any bill well into 2019.

Done right, casinos could be brilliant for Japan, but the odds of the government getting it together remain no better than 60-40.

Okada Manila at crossroads

Universal Entertainment’s putative US$2 billion Okada Manila is named for company founder Kazuo Okada, ousted in June for financial malfeasance. His purge left Okada Manila, or more aptly, NOkada Manila, in limbo, open but less than half finished. Universal has to decide whether it will spend upwards of US$1 billion on someone else’s dream.

Tallying positives, the Philippines continues to show strong gaming growth, and Okada Manila could become its flagship property. Universal’s core pachinko business is shrinking, and its Aruze gaming machines compete against recently merged global behemoths, so Universal needs a new growth source. Experts including Global Market Advisors senior partner Andrew Klebanow believe a Japanese company with casino operating experience will hold a golden ticket to an IR partnership.

Negatives include Okada Manila’s trail of bribery allegations and other illegalities. Adding that to the Philippines’ poor regulatory reputation could earn disqualification from Japanese regulators. Universal is new to casino operations, and Okada management earned mixed grades for its first year. Finally, given the pending sale of Pagcor casinos and the state of the project, Okada Manila will be hard to unload and unlikely to recoup its cost.

I predict Universal retains Okada Manila, sharing the risk with a local partner, possibly expanding its relationship with Antonio Cojuango’s All Seasons, the project’s well-connected land holder. For a Japanese company, keeping the property will be an unusually gutsy move in the tradition of Kazuo Okada. And, whatever happens, they will change the name.

Vietnam’s moment of truth

A year ago, to the delight of international gaming companies, Vietnam approved gambling for citizens that meet minimum income requirements in certain casinos. So far, none of those casinos have opened. At least one will this year, and we’ll sample whether the excitement has been warranted.

Vietnam has 95 million people, many gambling in nearby countries. But it’s the sixth largest economy in the 10 member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, with ASEAN’s eighth largest GDP per capita, topping only Myanmar and Cambodia. “It’s still a poor country,” Galaxy Entertainment Group Vice Chairman Francis Lui observed while keynoting last May’s Global Gaming Expo Asia. Galaxy announced last month it’s developing a new casino resort in Boracay, a Philippine island famed for white sand beaches, where all locals can play.

Online gaming logs in

“You look at what’s happening to Macy’s with Amazon, and you wonder if that’s our future,” a gaming executive told me recently. Online gaming, like online retail, has a lot of advantages over bricks and mortar. But in Asia, online gaming remains largely illegal for players. The two main licensing jurisdictions, the Philippines and Cambodia, hardly inspire regulatory confidence. President Duterte has wrought havoc in the Philippines’ offshore and domestic online gaming sectors.

But as the U.S. moves toward legalization of sports betting, much of it likely conducted online, Asia may reconsider online gaming. But it will need better oversight. South Korea checks the boxes with a respectable regulatory and financial framework, and it’s a technology powerhouse that could ensure play on its platforms is legal and honest. Plus South Korea wants to make a name in gaming, and online may be more appropriate than IRs. Many of those same attributes apply to Australia.

Check back in 12 months to count the hits and misses.