Macau ended its 26-month casino revenue losing streak in August. The long awaited, often predicted gain follows the current wave of Cotai openings’ most anticipated event so far, the debut of Wynn Palace on August 22. Previous openings of Galaxy Macau’s second phase and Melco Crown’s Studio City were expected to provide upticks in gaming revenue and tourist arrivals, but didn’t. Now analysts are divided on whether Steve Wynn’s new $4.2 billion Palace – watch this space for an eyewitness report –is the catalyst for a turnaround and whether this glimmer of good times will last.

August gross gaming revenue (GGR) reached 18.8 billion Macau patacas (MOP; $2.35 billion), 1.1% better than the MOP18.6 recorded in August last year, Macau’s first year-on-year increase since May 2014. For the first eight months of the year, Macau’s gaming revenue is down 9.1%. But August posted the highest GGR total since February and increased 6% from July, better than the historic sequential change of +5%.

Analysts have different takes on what happened in August and what to make of it. Morgan Stanley notes that, along with the growth from a year earlier, August marked the first time GGR beat the historic seasonal change in consecutive months since 2014. It believes the positives were due to the Wynn Palace opening, as property analysts generally lauded. Sanford Bernstein notes that average daily revenue accelerated by 15% during the last 10 days of August, coinciding with the Palace opening. Wells Fargo Securities indicates that mass market appeared flat and suggests VIP grew as a consequence of additional marketing due to added competition, specifically the new Wynn on the block.

Union Gaming in Macau reports that August GGR was the highest for a non-holiday month since April 2015 and that results could have been even better. Early in the month, Typhoon Nidia disrupted travel and this August had two fewer weekend days than last year, both depressing GGR. The boutique investment bank believes that a “normalized” August number would have been “closer to +4%,” implying GGR of MOP19.4 billion. Union admits that it doesn’t know to what extent good luck played a role in the turnaround.

JP Morgan cautions that the gain appears to be driven by VIP, so has an even more limited impact on profits than the 1.1% gain implies and that luck, admittedly based on limited data, appears to have played a key role, bolstering arguments that the effect of the Wynn opening wasn’t very visible. The bank acknowledges what’s indisputable: the number was positive and, with the “less bad” number from July, reinforces the case for stabilization.

A marginal bump in gaming revenue, while welcome, doesn’t indicate that Macau has addressed underlying issues as it attempts to shift from simply a gaming hub, albeit one that’s four times bigger than Las Vegas, to a well-rounded tourist destination. Nor does it indicate that China’s slowing economic growth and President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign that’s devastated VIP play have abated. The opening of Sand China’s $3 billion Parisian next week – another Sheldon Adelson face off with rival Wynn – a property more in keeping with the Macau government’s diversification drive, enhances the chances of the positive trend continuing in September.

Analysts say the real test lies ahead in October that starts with China’s National Day Golden Week and is generally one of the top three months of the year. However, a more relevant test may come when, rather than having the push of compulsory vacations for the 1.3 billion people on its doorstep and facing increased regional competition, Macau can display the pull of its own charms to get them to visit at other times.