Casino operators and industry experts largely believe Shanghai Disney Resort, opened June 16, will have no impact on Asia’s casinos. Waiting 90 minutes in hopes of getting the front car for Seven Dwarfs Mine Train is the closest thing to gambling at mainland China’s first Disneyland, the third Disney resort in Asia. But with casino revenue falling across much of the region and gaming destinations, led by Macau, aiming to broaden their appeal beyond hardcore gamblers with family entertainment, including theme park style attractions, or even full-fledged theme parks, it may be time to rethink the dynamic “We do not see Shanghai Disney Resort as our direct competitor since neither City of Dreams nor Studio City is a theme park,” Melco Crown Entertainment, which offers a Batman flight simulation ride, observation wheel and magic attractions at Macau’s Studio City plus a DreamPlay indoor adventure park at City of Dreams Manila, says in a statement. “MCE’s properties are world-class integrated resorts that offer more than family-oriented entertainment attractions, [including] excellent hospitality services, award-winning dining and luxurious retail experiences, top notch MICE facilities plus premium casino gaming and more.” Similarly, Sands China senior vice president of marketing Scott Messinger says its properties incorporate theme park elements but offer much greater variety including concerts and hundreds of shops.

CLSA head of consumer and gaming research Aaron Fischer says Shanghai Disney, which cost $5.5 billion, will have “zero impact” on Macau, dismissing the legend of the mainland family trip that includes a stop at Hong Kong Disneyland for the family then a Macau leg for daddy. “We do not think Shanghai Disneyland is likely to have a material impact on Macau,” The Innovation Group vice president Michael Zhu says. “Trips to Disneyland and casino resorts are not at all substitutes for each other.”

“The effects of a regional theme park on Macau have long been sunk into the whole macro discretionary entertainment spend analysis,” Global Market Advisors senior partner Andrew Klebanow says. “However, theme park spend comes out of the same wallet as gambling spend.” That explains, for example why Disney has lobbied long and hard against commercial casino gambling in Florida, and it suggests Shanghai Disney could change the game for casinos. Morgan Stanley Asia notes that reported average per capita spending for Shanghai Disneyland visitors, RMB2,219 ($334), is comparable to spending by mainland visitors to Macau, MOP2,525 ($317). Analysts Praveen Choudhury and Alex Poon also cite a Morgan Stanley survey indicating that 30% of Chinese gamblers will visit Macau less frequently after the Shanghai Disney opening, and data from mainland travel agency Ctrip showing 60% of Shanghai Disneyland visitors come from outside Shanghai, potentially overlapping with Macau’s heartland market area of Guangdong, China’s richest province. The result is likely “one less trip over a period of time that people would [otherwise] take to Macau,” Union Gaming Securities Asia managing director Grant Govertsen says. “Macau needs to step up its game to give people a reason to forego that [other] trip.” Shanghai Disney Resort, which includes hotels and room to grow and is forecast to draw up to 50 million annual visitors, instantly transforms Asia’s theme park business. That segment includes Universal Studios Singapore, which welcomed a record 4.2 million guests last year as the anchor entertainment attraction at Genting Group’s Resorts World Sentosa.

Las Vegas tried the theme park/casino combination in the 1990s with limited success, but the concept is growing in Asia. Theme parks are part of casino resort projects from Genting outside Kuala Lumpur and on South Korea’s Jeju island and from U.S. tribal gaming operator Mohegan Sun in Incheon, next to South Korea’s gateway airport.

“We believe Shanghai Disney will raise the bar and ‘educate’ the market,” AECOM vice president of economics and global director of leisure and culture services for Asia Chris Yoshii says. Development consultant AECOM and the Themed Entertainment Association jointly publish the annual global theme park and museum attendance report. “Casinos contemplating entertainment facilities should be planning on high quality and unique facilities,” Yoshii, based in Hong Kong, adds. “The advantage of a casino oriented theme park is the ability to be more unique, interactive and personalized whereas Shanghai Disney will always need to target mass numbers of visitors.”

Disney, which reported theme park revenue up 6% for the second quarter that included two weeks of Shanghai business, certainly can rack up numbers. Tokyo Disneyland was the world’s third most visited theme park last year – behind Disney’s Orlando Magic Kingdom and the Anaheim original – attracting 16.6 million guests, with another 13.6 million at sister park Tokyo Disney Sea. Hong Kong Disneyland ranked number 19 globally at 6.8 million, according TEA/AECOM’a Theme Index.

“Shanghai Disney will do well. It will set record numbers,” chairman of Hong Kong home grown theme attraction Ocean Park Allan Zeman says. “At the beginning, people from all over China will come to visit. Going forward, it will be very crowded. There will be two-three hour waits. The novelty will wear off.” After some initial drop-off, Zeman, who also serves as vice chairman of Wynn Macau, expects no lasting impact on Hong Kong theme parks. HK Disneyland caters to the China market and Southeast Asia and, ahead of Shanghai Disney’s opening, has expanded and upgraded its attractions, including world-first offerings such as Victorian-era haunted house Mystic Manor.

Tokyo Disneyland, one of the world’s best places for people watching – don’t forget your matching outfits – and very loyal to the original, likely provides a model for Shanghai. While friendly and familiar for Westerners, Tokyo Disneyland firmly focuses on the domestic market, still the world’s third richest. Tokyo Disneyland’s vibrancy and service levels mask Japan’s quarter century of economic doldrums but attendance fell at Tokyo’s two Disney parks by 1.2 million last year. A boost to domestic tourism would surely help, and perhaps nothing would do the trick better than a multi-billion dollar casino complex in Tokyo. Like it or not, Asia’s casinos and theme parks are increasingly connected.